I’ve gotta be honest; I’m still having a hard time believing that the Democratic Party genuinely plans to elect Joe Biden as the next President of the United States of America.
Prior to the 2020 election cycle, this was meant to be a vanity campaign for the former Vice President — a retirement farewell tour of sorts.
Last year, the DNC loaded the field with relatively young (compared to Biden, Bernie, or Trump), charismatic, liberal talent. Someone like Beto O’Rourke, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, or Kamala Harris was meant to reignite the Democratic base to 2008-Obama-like proportions, seizing the nomination and the future of the party.
Then Bernie Sanders decided to run again, and his “revolution” picked up right where it left off in 2016.
Polling data pegged the Vermont Senator as the favorite to win the primary. One-by-one, the DNC’s chosen stars fell out of the race – some, like Kamala Harris, before the first official contest in Iowa.
Operation Stop Bernie
That’s when the mission changed for Democratic Party leaders and donors. Instead of crowning the future, the most pressing issue was stopping Bernie Sanders.
After Jim Clyburn’s endorsement resurrected his campaign in South Carolina, establishment officials made the call – it was time to rally around Joe Biden.
He was the only candidate who could prevent Bernie from establishing a delegate majority if everyone else dropped out and coalesced behind the 77-year-old.
However, the Biden choice was made of necessity, not enthusiasm or a belief in the former Vice President’s fitness to perform the job. It was apparent from very early on in the election cycle that Joe lost his fastball; he wasn’t the same guy from even a few years ago.
He was more prone to gaffes than ever, made bizarre challenges to voters that asked tough questions at a series of campaign stops, and had a problematic record that was sure to alienate a sizable portion of the left-wing of the party.
Before, I believed Biden would be used to secure the nomination at the Democratic National Convention.
He’d then step down due to age-related health reasons, allowing party officials to replace him with a candidate of their choosing, as soon as second-place finisher Sen. Sanders was no longer a threat.
We’re well passed national convention week now, roughly six weeks away from Election Day and Joe Biden is still the Democratic candidate.
Joe Biden, a “Spoon Full of Sugar”
We’re well passed national convention week now, roughly six weeks away from Election Day and Joe Biden is still the Democratic candidate.
Still, there are signs that the sundowning former Delaware Senator is nothing more than a delivery system being utilized to install who DNC insiders wanted for the presidency all along – Sen. Kamala Harris.
It’s like Mary Poppins song; Joe Biden is the spoon full of sugar helping the bitter medicine of a candidate primary voters already rejected go down.
Next week should determine if the switch from Biden to Kamala happens before Election Day, during Joe’s first term, or ahead of the 2024 Democratic primaries.
The first debate is fast approaching, after which we’ll know whether we can expect the oldest presidential candidate in US history to reach the November 3 finish line.
In the meantime, I’ve identified a couple of promising Kamala Harris betting lines that will deliver some hefty payouts should they come through.
They’re admittedly long-shot bets, but worth a closer look given the circumstances.
Kamala Harris +5000 to Win 2020 Presidential Election
|Candidate||Odds to Win US Presidential Election|
Presidential Debates & Joe Biden’s Health
By all appearances, Democratic officials are satisfied with allowing Joe Biden to remain at the top of the ticket, despite obvious concerns over the nominee’s cognitive health and questions concerning his ability to assume the responsibilities associated with the presidency.
They’re happy to make Joe the figurehead while Sen. Harris and an administration of Obama acolytes run the country behind the scenes.
First, Biden must clear one final hurdle: September 29’s presidential debate.
Suppose the experienced debater can keep his cool and display a level of coherence that many believe he’s lost.
In that case, Kamala will have to settle for the patented Dick Cheney, “ruling from the shadows” role for four years (assuming they beat Trump).
There’s a total of three presidential debates on the schedule between now and Election Day. I only see the first meeting posing a threat to Biden’s candidacy. As long as Joe clears the extremely low bar set for him next Tuesday and “proves” he’s lucid enough to finish the race, the challenger can go back to the basement for the remainder of the election.
If there are iffy moments, the Biden campaign can use a litany of excuses to call off the other two debates and assign blame to Donald Trump.
- Fact-checkers’ findings can be used to argue the President lies too much to be worth engaging.
- Or they can highlight damning Trump quotes as a rationale for canceling the debates in an effort to “avoid platforming” any more of Trump’s “dangerous” comments.
Campaign strategists and liberal media outlets can cover up anything short of a total meltdown. But for those 90 minutes on September 29, Biden is all on his own. That’s why the first presidential debate is so pivotal.
After Tuesday night, only legitimate (and likely severe, if they’re willing to rock the boat) health concerns will force Democrats to make Senator Harris’s ascent to the top of their ticket before Election Day.
There’s a chance the upcoming presidential debate will be a disaster for Biden.
He’s frequently gotten flustered and temperamental in the rare instances when he’s been challenged and appears unable to keep track of his thoughts without the help of notes and teleprompters at times.
A significant enough stumble in an environment in which the candidate’s staffers cannot offer their assistance could send the Democratic Party scrambling to make last-minute changes to their ticket.
If the worst happened, Biden would come clean about his health issues, withdraw from the race, and Kamala Harris would move to the top of the ticket and nominate a new Vice-Presidential running mate.
The “Harris-Biden Administration”
Last week, the Democratic duo committed a pair of Freudian slips that further solidified my belief that all is not as it seems in the Biden campaign.
Within hours of each other, both nominees seemed to forget who was headlining the party’s ticket.
During a virtual roundtable on Saturday, Senator Harris mistakenly referred to the “Harris administration” while discussing their prospective White House’s economic plans.
“A Harris administration, together with Joe Biden as the president of the United States,” said Kamala, before correcting herself.
Speaking at an event in Florida the very next day, Joe Biden made the same blunder.
“It makes it so much harder for military spouses to find good jobs and build their careers. That has to change,” Biden told a group of veterans in Tampa Bay.
“A Harris-Biden administration is going to relaunch that effort and keep pushing further to make it easier for military spouses and veterans to find meaningful careers to ensure teachers know how to support military children in their classrooms and to improve support for caregivers and survivors so much more than we do now.”
Is this an indication of how DNC operatives see the Biden-Harris administration playing out behind the scenes?
If only one of them misspoke, I wouldn’t think much of it, but both?
That’s not just an error; it’s insight into the arrangement that’s been made between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
Democratic Leaders and Donors Always Wanted Kamala for President
Remember, Kamala Harris is who Democratic leaders and donors wanted as their presidential candidate from the beginning.
Before the primary field was formed, the California Senator was favored to win the nomination.
She was tapped as Hillary’s heir apparent during Donald Trump’s first year in office.
During the Summer of 2017, Harris was invited to the Hamptons. She met several prominent Clinton donors and attended a luncheon hosted by Liz Robbins, one of the former Secretary of State’s loyal lobbyist bundlers.
The meet-and-greets continued throughout the lead-up to announcing her candidacy. Kamala also hired several former Clinton staffers.
Once the primary season came around, the Democratic donors made their preferences known.
From January 1, through September 30, 2019, more billionaires donated to Kamala Harris than any other presidential candidate.
More telling, however, is the Senator’s first-quarter donations. While Harris’s 47 total billionaire campaign contributors gave her a slight edge over Cory Booker (45), Joe Biden (44), and Pete Buttigieg (40), in 2019’s Q1, Kamala’s 31 wealthy donors nearly doubled the second-highest recipient, John Hickenlooper’s, 16.
I believe this demonstrates that before the Democratic establishment realized Bernie Sanders was a threat to win again, Sen. Harris was the “chosen one.”
The money only began to be spread around out of necessity, as they scrambled to find anyone who could stop the progressive from Vermont.
Following the money will almost always uncover the political elite’s intentions.
Just as the cash and DNC operatives flowed to Kamala’s bid to become President, so too did it follow her to the Joe Biden campaign.
“Harris flashed her fundraising muscle with jaw-dropping totals: The Biden campaign raised $25.5 million the day following her addition to the ticket. That number ballooned to $48 million in two days. The top four fundraising days for Biden’s campaign have now all come within a week of Harris’ selection.”
“For comparison, the campaign’s previous single best fundraising day came in at $10 million on June 30, at the close of the second quarter fundraising period. These totals also benefit from higher rates for individual giving, after Biden’s campaign merged forces with the Democratic National Committee to jointly fundraise earlier this year.”
Since announcing Harris as his VP, Biden’s war chest has been flush with donations. The Democratic challenger has out-earned the President several months in a row, breaking monthly and quarterly fundraising records in the process.
Donors don’t usually fork over boatloads of cash for Vice Presidents.
As Ami Copeland, former deputy national finance director during Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, said:
“Donors weren’t investing in Obama thinking they’d also get Biden in 2016.”
“I’m betting that everyone in Harris-land is thinking about 2024,” Copeland added.
Last-Minute Switch or Backdoor Presidency?
I can say with relative confidence that if Joe Biden wins in November, it will be Kamala Harris fulfilling the President’s primary duties. If anything, Biden will be a figurehead, used more for the office’s ceremonial roles than governing.
For a bet on Kamala Harris at +5000, that’s not good enough. This long-shot pick only pays out if the former attorney general becomes President.
It’s highly unlikely that the Democrats would make such a dramatic move so late in the game, but that’s why the return is so great! Bettors are relying on a disastrous debate performance or health issue, forcing DNC leadership’s hand.
Still, take some time to watch videos of Joe Biden recently. His dropping out is far from a sure thing, but if ever a candidate was to require a last-second replacement, it’d be the former Vice President in his current form.
She’d Still Have to Win
Of course, even if Kamala Harris +5000 backers were fortunate enough to see her bumped to the top of the ticket, there’s one glaring problem: she still has to beat Donald Trump!
The Senator’s primary performance was abysmal; her campaign ended in December, well before the Iowa caucus, with Harris failing to poll about 2-3%.
Regardless, it could still be worth throwing $20 or so on the shocking upset.
Since the primaries, a pandemic erupted, the economy collapsed, and the election became a referendum on President Trump. Biden’s enthusiasm numbers suggest nobody is voting for the 77-year-old centrist, so much as they’re against the incumbent.
It might not matter whose name occupies the space next to the “D” on the ballot.
2020 Presidential Election
Kamala Harris +350 to Win 2024 Democratic Nomination
|Candidate||Odds to Win Democratic Nomination|
The other interesting opportunity to wager on Kamala Harris will require some patience. But that’s what’s so wonderful about futures odds; the earlier you place your bets, the more value you will find.
Sen. Harris’s position on the Biden ticket gives her a massive head start on the next election cycle. If the Democrats beat Trump this year, Kamala will nearly be a lock to win in four years.
Biden has admitted he plans to be a bridge candidate.
If victorious, he’ll serve one term (assuming he’s able) and step aside for the next generation of Democrats. Joe’s VP is the obvious choice to be his successor.
Looking at the field of candidates, there are precious few realistic challengers to Kamala’s 2024 nomination.
Possible 2024 Dem Primary Challengers
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is extraordinarily popular among progressives and may be seen as the heir apparent to Bernie Sanders’s grassroots movement, but the DNC establishment doesn’t like her.
The congresswoman was shown where she stands among party leaders during the national convention when AOC was given less than a minute to talk. In contrast, multiple Republicans were given prominent speaking roles.
If the centrists can use their tricks to snuff out Bernie twice, a newcomer to politics like Ocasio-Cortez doesn’t stand a chance.
- Bernie Sanders will be too old to run again.
- Same for Joe Biden.
- We saw from the Vice-Presidential sweepstakes how Democratic donors feel about Elizabeth Warren.
Even though she colluded with the establishment to take down Bernie, when it came time to choose a VP for Biden, the Massachusetts Senator was still a no-go. Any hint of progressivism is enough to lose the donor class – which controls the party – for good.
- Andrew Cuomo might try to run in 2024, but eventually, the truth about how horrifically he mismanaged the pandemic in New York. Right now, the Democrats have to pretend Trump is the only person who failed this test, but once he’s out of office, there will be a reevaluation. History will not look kindly upon Governor Cuomo.
- Pete Buttigieg is the only legitimate threat to Kamala Harris’s 2024 bid that’s currently on the board. I saw an article this week that said Pete is playing the role of Mike Pence in the VP nominee’s debate preparations.
If the Democrats win in November and Joe Biden retires after (or during) his first term, I predict Senator Harris will lead the 2024 ticket, with Buttigieg serving as her Vice-Presidential running mate.