Well, I guess somebody has to get all of the money, it just turns out that it is us! We have been stupid hot in the last month or so betting on Big League Baseball, and that blistering run continued yesterday, as we ran up a 9-3 overall record and nailed a 3-team parlay for a juicy $465 payout. That parlay came in when the Braves (-159), Twins (-165), and Giants (-129) all won their games. The Braves and Giants didn’t make us sweat it out too much as both teams took early leads and held on to win, but the Twins had us sweating the action late into the night, as their game against the Texas Rangers went into extra innings. Minnesota scored 3 runs in the top of the 10th inning, the last 2 of which came on bases loaded walks, to pick up the win and cash our ticket.
— Oakland A’s (@Athletics) June 19, 2021
Other winning bets on the day included dog money winners on the Athletics (+123), Astros (-105), and Mariners (-108), and the Nationals (-124) as small favorites. We also brought home a couple of totals bets winners on what was a day full of action. We went 2/3 on both our all-dog parlay, and our totals parlay, coming oh so close to another 4-figure payday. Today, we jump right back into the action, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies (-117)
The Colorado Rockies are one of the strangest teams in recent memory. I can’t remember a team that had this stark of a contrast between their production at home and on the road. Rockies fans are thanking the Arizona Diamondbacks for taking the spotlight off of their road futility as Arizona set a new all-time record for consecutive road losses earlier this week, at 23 straight. But in reality, the Rockies have actually been even worse than Arizona away from home, as they are an absolutely embarrassing, 5-27 on the year. But at home, Colorado isn’t just better, they are actually good! The Rockies currently have the most home wins of any team in the National League! I am not sure if we have ever seen a team lead their league in both home wins and road losses, but right now, that is what this Colorado team has been able to do.
Add another W to the win column!#RoxWynn 🖐️
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) June 19, 2021
I guess it makes a little bit of sense, as Coors Field is the most unique ballpark in all of baseball, and the Rockies clearly built their team to be able to win games in the thin Rocky Mountain air. Austin Gomber, tonight’s starter for Colorado, like much of the rest of this team, has been way better at home than on the road. Gomber has figured out how to pitch in the toughest ballpark in the game to pitch in, as he is 3-1 with a blink, and you will miss it, 0.95 ERA at Coors Field. He has not allowed a single earned run at Coors Field in his last 3 starts combined, with 2 of those starts coming against the San Diego Padres, one of the hard-hitting teams in the NL.
Colorado is 5-0 on this homestand, having knocked off the Padres for 3 games and the Brewers twice, 2 of the top teams in the league. We talk a lot about betting trends here at TheSportsGeek, and there has been no trend in baseball stronger than backing the Rockies at home when favored, as they are an insanely good 10-2 at home as betting favorites. That is a trend that can’t be denied. Give me the Rockies as they make it 3 straight wins over a suddenly slumping Brewer’s team.
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (-113)
We backed the Twins yesterday and picked up a winner, but today we will switch gears and jump on the home team Rangers as small favorites. The Twins have been a joke on the road this year, and yesterday’s play was mostly just a fade of Rangers starter Mike Foltynewicz. Today, Texas will start former top prospect Kolby Allard, and when you see how well he has pitched in Arlington this season, you will know Texas is the side to be on. Even with the win yesterday, the Twins are still just 14-20 on the road, and Kolby Allard has been fantastic with a 2.16 ERA at home. Allard started his season working out of the Ranger’s bullpen and has recently transitioned back into a starting role for Texas, and in his 2 starts this month, coming against the Dodgers and the Rays, the defending pennant winners from their respective leagues, he has worked 10 innings and has allowed just 2 total earned runs.
Let’s even the series. pic.twitter.com/gsDfqKDC9j
— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) June 19, 2021
Randy Dobnak has been awful for Minnesota so far this season, with an ERA north of 8 runs. He, too, has bounced around between the bullpen and the rotation, but he hasn’t had much success in either role. Dobnak has been particularly bad this month, as the Twins have lost all 3 of his outings, and he has gotten hammered for 17 runs in just 12.2 innings, on a whopping 26 hits, 6 of which left the ballpark, and 5 walks. This is plain and simple a bad number. The Twins stink on the road, the Rangers are respectable at home, and Randy Dobnak is on the auto-fade list right now. Minnesota is just 4-9 in 2021 when they are road underdogs, and their .348 overall winning percentage when they are getting juice is 2nd worst in the American League. Take Texas.
Boston Red Sox (-122) at Kansas City Royals
No team in the American League has been better on the road this season than the Boston Red Sox. Boston is 22-11 away from home, and they just might have caught the streaky Royals at just the right time. Kansas City is either red-hot or ice-cold this season, and right now, they are ice-cold, having lost 11 of their previous 12 games before picking up the win in the series opener with Boston yesterday, 5-3. But something tells me that Boston sends the Royals back to the losing column today, as the Royals emptied their bullpen yesterday, and they are almost certainly going to need them today, with Brad Keller getting the nod for KC. Keller has been putrid this season, and after looking like the future ace of this franchise last season, when he posted a stellar 2.47 ERA, he now has an ERA above 6 runs and has made getting blasted and run from games early, a regular occurrence. Opposing teams are hitting a sizzling-hot .331 against Keller at Kaufman Stadium, which has led to a home ERA of 7.80 in 7 starts.
How we’re lining up this afternoon: pic.twitter.com/m0JS5SCfAD
— Red Sox (@RedSox) June 19, 2021
Martin Perez has yet to figure out how to get guys out at Fenway Park in his short sting with the Red Sox, but he has excelled on the road, with a 2.15 ERA outside of Boston. In his last road start, Perez went into Houston and shut out the Astros in 7.2 innings of work, against a Houston team that leads the Major Leagues in runs scored. Yesterday’s game was hard to predict, and I just don’t think KC is playing well enough right now to expect them to beat the Red Sox in back-to-back games. The variance will even out today, and a play on Boston at this price shows outrageous value.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Colorado Rockies -117
- Texas Rangers -113
- Boston Red Sox -122
$100 Bet Pays $615
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels Over 9.5 Runs (-110)
Raise your hand if you like free money. I can’t see all of you out there, but if you are playing along, I am sure all of you have your hands raised up high, as free money is always a fan favorite! There hasn’t been a bet in the last week or so that has been more free money than taking the over in the Angel’s games. For my regular readers, you know that I have been hammering on the over in Angel’s games all season long, and the Halos have now hit double-digit runs scored and gone over their total in their last 8 straight games. This series with the Tigers has already seen 26 runs scored in the first 2 games, and today in game 3, we could see an even higher-scoring game as Tiger’s starter Wily Peralta has pitched just 1.1 innings since 2019 and hasn’t made a Major League start since 2017. Patrick Sandoval has been decent for LA, but it hasn’t really hurt the Angels run totals, as in his 8 appearances this season, the total has hit double digits 6 times. Wash, rinse, and repeat, give me the over in this one.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Under 10.5 (-110)
Yesterday I jumped on the under 10 runs in the game between the Orioles and Blue Jays as I felt that Blue Jays starter Robbie Ray would be good enough to keep the total in single digits. Ray was bad, but it didn’t matter, as the game still came in under. Today, with young stud Alek Manoah getting the start for Toronto, I am shocked to see an even higher total. Manoah is one of the brightest young prospects in the game, and in his 3 road starts this season, he has a 1.06 ERA. Baltimore starter Dean Kremer has been bad, but we saw yesterday that if one of these teams doesn’t score, it is really hard for a game to go over such a high total. Baltimore won’t have anything for Alek Manoah today, and that will be enough to get us paid on the under.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
I love this starting pitching matchup today between Lance Lynn and Framber Valdez. Lynn has only made 3 road starts this year, but he has been amazing, allowing just 2 total earned runs across 15.2 innings pitched. And Framber Valdez has been just as good for Houston, as after getting a late start to his season due to injury, Valdez has been unhittable this month, with a 3-0 record and 1.27 ERA in 3 starts. Both of these guys are near mortal locks to get deep into this game, and runs are going to be hard to come by in what should be a playoff atmosphere tonight at Minute Maid Park. Yesterday’s game finished up with a 2-1 final score, and this game seems destined for a similar outcome with a couple of studs on the mound.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels Over 9.5 Runs -110
- Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Under 10.5 -110
- Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros Under 7.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Philadelphia Phillies (-104) at San Francisco Giants
I have been betting on the San Franciso Giants a ton this season. Despite having the best record in all of baseball and being elite at home, the Giants almost always seem to be undervalued. But today, the Giants are actually getting a bit too much love against Phillies starter Aaron Nola. Nola has been a bit hot and cold for Philly this year, but when he is on his game, he can completely shut a team down. We saw that in his last outing when he dominated the New York Yankees to the tune of 7.2 shutout innings of work. It was the 5th time this season that Nola allowed 1 earned run or fewer in a start.
West Coast Nols.
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) June 19, 2021
Early this season, Alex Wood was pitching out of his mind, and his results were almost too good to be true. Through his first 6 starts of the year, he was 5-0 with a 1.75 ERA. But it turns out that Wood’s production was indeed too good to be true, as he has come crashing back to earth since that hot start, as he has allowed 17 runs in his last 4 starts combined. His ERA has risen 2 full runs, and the Giants have lost 3 of his last 5 outings. I don’t make a habit of betting against the Giants at home, as they have been really tough to beat at Oracle Park, and trust me, I know that the Phillies aren’t very good on the road, but with Aaron Nola coming off of a great outing, and Alex Wood starting to look more like Alex Wood and less like Randy Johnson, the time is right for an upset.
Chicago White Sox (+112) at Houston Astros
I have taken the Astros in each of the first 2 games of this series and have cashed tickets both times. Houston has the best record in the Major Leagues against teams with a winning record, and they are showing it this month, with series wins over teams like the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Red Sox. And as much as I like backing Houston, being able to get Lance Lynn as an underdog is too much value for me to pass up on. After finishing in the top 5 of the AL Cy Young Award voting in each of the last 2 seasons, Lynn might finally get to be the bride, not the bridesmaid this year, as he leads the league in ERA, and is top-5 in WHIP, W/9, H/9, WAR, and wins. He is far too good not to want to back as an underdog, and I will do my best to ignore the fact that Framber Valdez is a 1-man wrecking crew at Minute Maid Park this season. Give me the White Sox in a low-scoring and tightly contested contest.
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (+120)
Don’t look now, but the Seattle Mariners are back to .500 on the season, and after handing the Tampa Bay Rays losses the last 2 nights, I think Seattle picks up the series win tonight in game 3 of this 4-game set versus Tampa Bay. The Mariners made a couple of highly anticipated call ups earlier this year when super prospects Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert, made their Big League debuts. Kelenic stole most of the spotlight at the time, as he is a 5-tool future MVP candidate, but it has been Gilbert that has been better in the show this season for Seattle. Gilbert took his fair share of lumps in his first several starts, but he has things figured out lately, as Seattle has won his last 4 starts, and in his last 3 outings, he has pitched 17.2 innings and allowed only 4 earned runs while striking out 18.
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) June 19, 2021
Gilbert has ace-level stuff, and the days of being able to get him as a home dog are likely going to be very short-lived. Tampa Bay will start a youngster of their own, in rookie Josh Fleming. Fleming has been strong at home, but shaky on the road, as he has allowed 9 earned runs in his last 2 starts away from St. Pete. Seattle has won 5 of their last 6 games, and I see that success continuing tonight at T-Mobile Park. Yusei Kiuchi worked 7 innings last night for the M’s and gave up just 1 earned run, and I am going to pencil Logan Gilbert in for a similar effort tonight in game 3 as he leads his team to yet another victory.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Philadelphia Phillies -104
- Chicago White Sox +112
- Seattle Mariners +120
$100 Bet Pays $915
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Toronto Blue Jays (-180) at Baltimore Orioles
I hate that the books have already caught on to the fact that Alek Manoah is a monster on the mound. Normally the books take months and sometimes years to recognize when a young starter has emerged as an ace, but that hasn’t been the case for Manoah, as he is already being priced close to an ace, with just 4 Big League starts under his belt. This line isn’t all Manoah love, though, as Dean Kremer has been a disaster for Baltimore with an ERA approaching 9 runs at Camden Yard. The Orioles are 2-7 when Kremer starts and have lost his last 5 outings. I thought about taking the run line, as this game could get out of hand, but this line is still reasonable enough to show some nice value, so I will take the lower variance route and just snatch up the free money on Toronto on the money line.
Cincinnati Reds (+138) at San Diego Padres
The Cincinnati Reds have burned me the last 2 nights, and I will take a bite of that forbidden fruit again and back the Reds tonight in game 3 against the Padres. Taking big underdogs is always a risky proposition, but when a number is bad, it is bad, and if you want to make a living betting on baseball, your only job is to identify and exploit bad lines. You can’t let the short-term variance dissuade you from being on the value side of a game, and despite picking up losses, both of which cost us a parlay winner, I am going to take the Reds in this game. We just talked about how the word is out an Alek Manoah, but that isn’t the case with young Reds starter Vladimir Gutierrez, as Guitierrez is still being priced like a rookie, despite pitching at an elite level since being called up last month.
This man deserves to be an All-Star!
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 19, 2021
The 25-year-old Cuban is 3-0 this month and has a 2.74 ERA in 4 career starts. The San Diego Padres have a bevy of elite starting pitchers, but Miguel Diaz isn’t one of them. Diaz has mostly worked out of the bullpen this year for the Friars, and prior to his 1 start this season, he hadn’t started a game since 2017. He has been solid for San Diego this year, but his lifetime ERA was close to 6 runs prior to this year, so I am not sure these results can be trusted. The Reds were on fire before heading to San Diego, and I will fire on them again today, again as big underdogs.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-132) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The recipe for success has been a simple one in the last month. Bet against Arizona and win money. The DBacks have lost 15-straight games, and they aren’t even competitive most nights. I have been betting against them on the run line a lot, and they are getting me paid, as they make getting blown out a nightly occurrence. Walker Buehler is 6-0 this season and has a sub-2-run ERA on the road, and after watching Trevor Bauer toy with Arizona last night, it feels like the DBacks are getting shut out again tonight. But even if Buehler isn’t perfect, it probably won’t matter much, as Arizona starter Matt Peacock has a 7.02 ERA at Chase Field, and the DBacks have lost 8 of the last 9 games he has pitched in. The math on this one is pretty clear as the Dodgers have the highest run differential in the National League, and the DBacks have the worst. LA blows this one out.
St. Louis Cardinals (+107) at Atlanta Braves
The St. Louis Cardinals aren’t playing very well right now, and they have yet to win a game in this series with the Braves, but I think they turn things around today with veteran starter Adam Wainwright on the bump. Wainwright has had a couple of rough outings, which has inflated his ERA, but he has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in a start 9 times this season, so he is giving his team a chance to win almost every time that he pitches. You can’t really say the same thing about Braves starter Drew Smyly, as Atlanta is just 4-7 in his 11 starts in 2021, and he has allowed at least 3 runs in 8 different starts this season. St. Louis is too good to keep struggling for much longer, and I like them to break out of their slump tonight in Atlanta, behind a strong outing from Adam Wainwright.
Cleveland Indians (-117) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Our final play of the day comes to us from Pittsburgh, where the Pirates host the Indians. Yesterday’s game between Pittsburgh and Cleveland was one of the most exciting games of the season, as the Pirates jumped out to an 11-1 lead and almost blew it, as Cleveland closed the gap to 11-10 and had runners on base in the 9th inning trying to tie it up, before falling just short. It was a rare slice of enjoyment for Pirates fans in what has been a disappointing season, but those feelings are going to be short-lived, as Cleveland is going to take this one today. Cal Quantrill has allowed just 1 earned run in his last 2 starts, and while he isn’t going to get too deep into this game, you have to think he will be much better than Pirates starter Wil Crowe, who is 0-3 with a 7.15 ERA in the Steel City. Yesterday’s shenanigans have kept this number reasonable on Cleveland, and I will back an undervalued Indians team today on the road.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Toronto Blue Jays -180
- Cincinnati Reds +138
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs -132
- St. Louis Cardinals +107
- Cleveland Indians -117
$100 Bet Pays $2,499
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!