Well, yesterday wasn’t our best day ever, as we took our fair share of lumps. It has still been an amazing week of nailing parlays and straight bets, but yesterday we ran bad in a couple of key spots. The day wasn’t a complete failure, as we did stay red-hot on our run line bets, as we took both the Giants (+110) and the Angels (+100) on the run line and cashed both tickets. It almost feels silly talking about bad beats with as hot as we have been running, but yesterday we took some nasty ones, and it turned what could have been a big day into a disaster.
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) June 17, 2021
Our play on the Tampa Bay Rays was looking great, as the Rays led the Mariners 5-2 heading into the bottom of the 6th inning and still led 5-4 heading into the bottom of the 9th. Tampa Bay blew a rare save opportunity, as Kyle Seager hit a walk-off pinch-hit RBI single to give Seattle the come from behind win. All those late runs also cost us our under 8.5 runs play that was in great shape most of the evening. That beat hurt, but the really painful one came to us from San Diego, as we were in line to hit our all-underdog parlay for a juicy $525 payout and all we had to do was have the Reds hold on to a 4-2 lead in the 9th inning.
How do you lose 2 bets with one swing? I’ll tell you how, you see the Padres hit 2 9th inning home runs, the 2nd of which ruins both your (+150) underdog straight bet and your under totals bet all at the same time! What can you do? Some days suck. We will shake off the late-inning run bad today, and get right back to the grind, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (-159)
After getting smashed by the Red Sox for a whopping 20 runs in 2 games against Boston in their previous series, the Braves got back on track last night against St. Louis, beating the Cardinals 4-0. Charlie Morton spun a gem, and St. Louis managed just 3 hits on the day in what had to be a frustrating evening for Cardinals fans. Today, the team’s rematch for game 2 of this 4-game set, and the Braves will look for back-to-back wins over the Cardinals with their ace, Max Fried, getting the start. Fried hasn’t been as sharp this season as he was last year when he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, or the year before, when he won 17 games, but he has been stellar at home in the last several weeks and is starting to really step up his game. In his last 5 starts in Atlanta, Fried has worked at least 6 innings and allowed just 1 earned run per game in 4 of those 5 outings. In his last home start, he held the hard-hitting Los Angeles Dodgers to just a single earned run in 6 innings of work.
.@MaxFried32 takes the mound tonight vs. the Cardinals!
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) June 18, 2021
The Cardinals will look to tie up the series today with Carlos Martinez getting the nod, and they will need him to be much better today than he has been on the road this season, or they are going to get blown out. Martinez is 1-5 with a 5.73 ERA away from St. Louis this season, and he has been embarrassingly bad this month, as he has an ERA of 11.57 in 3 starts. The Cardinals lost all 3 of those games, with a run differential of -22. Max Fried has been too good at home this season not to love getting to back him at this price. And when you look at how Carlos Martinez is pitching right now, he just might go out and give the game away early on. Martinez has pitched 5 innings or fewer and allowed 4 runs or more on 5 different occasions this year, and St. Louis is just 4-8 in his 12 starts so far in 2021. I am backing the Braves.
Minnesota Twins (-165) at Texas Rangers
If you have been backing the Minnesota Twins on the road a lot this year, you are going broke, as Minnesota has been awful away from home. They haven’t been great in Minneapolis either, but on the road, they have been particularly bad. The 1 guy that has managed to be respectable on the road this year for the Twins, though, has been tonight’s starter, Jose Berrios. Berrios is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA in 7 road starts. Minnesota has done a great job of winning games when he pitches, as they have won 7 of his last 8 starts, including the last 6 straight. I expect Berrios to have a nice showing tonight against this Rangers team that is 14th in the AL in runs scored.
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) June 17, 2021
There was a time when Mike Foltynewicz was a respectable Major League pitcher. But those days are long gone, as Folty got cut by the Braves last year and was hoping to rejuvenate his career in Texas, but that just hasn’t happened. Foltynewicz has an absurd 17.05 ERA this month, and the Rangers have lost 6 of his last 7 outings. The Twin’s struggles have mostly surrounded their inability to get guys out, as the pitching staff has been dreadful, but they can still hit the baseball, as they are 2nd in the AL and 3rd in the majors in home runs entering play today. Foltynewicz has already gotten taken deep 16 times this season and has allowed 5 long balls in his last 3 starts. I think the Twins are going to pound him tonight, and as much as I hate laying this kind of wood on a team as inconsistent as the Twins are, they are the side to be on, as I think they win this game going away.
Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants (-129)
The San Francisco Giants have been one of the best home teams in all of baseball this season, with a 22-9 record at Oracle Park. The G-Men are 7-1 at home in the month of June, and today against a Phillies team that seemingly never wins on the road, they feel significantly undervalued. The Phillies 12 road wins on the year are more than only the Pirates, Rockies, and DBacks in the NL, and the Rockies are on pace for the worst road record in MLB history, and the DBacks just set a new standard for road futility by losing their 23rd straight road game, coincidently enough setting the record yesterday against these very same Giants.
More info: https://t.co/f2bmFYFgNT pic.twitter.com/WIumXQyxGp
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) June 18, 2021
It’s hard to understand how the Giants have managed to put together the top starting rotation in baseball this year, at least statistically speaking. San Francisco has a rotation cobbled together of also-rans, has-beens, and never-was’s like Johnny Cueto, Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, and Anthony DeSclafani but all of those guys are pitching out of their minds this year, and they have led the Giants to the best record in the Major Leagues. Cueto gets the start tonight, and while he hasn’t been as sharp as some of these other Giant’s hurlers, he has been more than respectable. The Giants are the best team in the Big Leagues right now. I know it’s not what we all expected, and it’s hard to understand, but they are absolutely the best team in the game at this very moment, and to see them as such small home favorites against a Phillies team that is awful on the road is an indefensibly bad number.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Atlanta Braves -159
- Minnesota Twins -165
- San Francisco Giants -129
$100 Bet Pays $465
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs (-110)
Even when we have an off day, the Angels still found a way not to let us down yesterday! I have taken the over in the Angels games on a regular basis all season long, and they have not disappointed, as they are going over at a 61% clip, 3rd best in the Major Leagues. I have actually taken the Halos to go over every day this week, and they haven’t missed a beat, as their games have hit double-digit run totals in 7 straight games. I will stick with that strong trend today and again jump on the over. This matchup features a couple of starters with ERA’s hovering right around 5 runs, and if that wasn’t enough to ensure this game goes over, the fact that the Tiger’s bullpen is dead last in the AL in bullpen ERA and the Angels are 13th in the league, tells me that there are going to be plenty of runs hitting the board tonight in the City of Angels.
Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Under 10.5 Runs (-110)
I can count on 1 finger how many times I have taken the under in games being played at Coors Field in Colorado this year. That’s not to say that games never go under at Coors Field, they certainly do, it’s just that it is always a sweat, as no matter how many outs are left in the game, you can never feel too good about things. But today, I am willing to sweat this one out and take the under, as Corbin Burnes is way too filthy to think he is going to get lit up tonight, even in that thin air of the Rocky Mountains. Burnes has made 3 road starts and has worked a total of 18 innings, and has allowed just 2 runs on only 7 base hits. He almost never walks anybody, with a 10-1 K/W ratio, and that thin air usually only comes into play on fly balls, and his fly ball out rate is just 26%, one of the best in the NL. If Burnes does what he normally does, I can’t imagine that the Brewers, who have the lowest team batting average in MLB, are going to be good enough to push this one to double digits on their own. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is no Corbin Burnes, but in his last 3 home starts, he has allowed just 4 earned runs in 19.2 innings. I don’t say this very often, but give me the under tonight in Colorado.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Under 10 Runs (-110)
Robbie Ray is having a strange season. He started the year with his typical command issues and walked 9 guys in his first 2 starts of the season. He then decided to reinvent himself, and instead of trying to strike everyone out, he decided to pitch to contact, which led to far fewer walks, and a lot better ERA, albeit with a much lower K rate. But teams started to catch on to Ray late last month, and hitters started to barrel him up, and he started to struggle. This month, we are seeing vintage Ray, as the walks are back, but so are the strikeouts, and this month, he has a 2.45 ERA and a whopping 32 K’s in just 18.1 innings pitched. This total feels far too high for a game where 1 of the starters is pitching so well. The O’s are 12th in the AL in runs scored, and if Ray can shut them down, this game has almost no shot of going over.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs -110
- Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies Under 10.5 Runs -110
- Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Under 10 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Oakland Athletics (+123) at New York Yankees
Pop quiz, which team currently has the most losses when favored at home this season? Did you guess the New York Yankees? Probably not, but it’s true, the Bronx Bombers have lost 15 times already this season when favored at home. But I guess you can’t blame Yankee Stadium too much, as New York also leads the majors in total losses when favored overall, with 29. The books are just refusing to realize that New York isn’t an elite team this year. I get it, they have lots of big-name players, and they should be better than they are, but they aren’t, and at some point, the books need to realize that this is a mediocre, at best, team and quit pricing them so aggressively.
— Oakland A’s (@Athletics) June 18, 2021
This game is a perfect example of that disconnect, as the Yanks are big favorites against an Athletics team that is tied for the best record in the AL. The A’s have been awesome on the road all season long, and James Kaprielian has been fantastic for a rookie, with a 2.51 ERA, and he has held opposing teams to 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his 6 career starts. I guess Jameson Taillon has been decent in the Big Apple with a 3.22 ERA, but it hasn’t really mattered, as the Yankees have lost 4 of his 7 starts at home anyway. Maybe I would buy this game as a coin flip, but the Yankees should certainly not be big favorites. I’ll back Oakland in what should be a tightly contested game.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (-105)
I took the Astros yesterday in game 1 against Chicago, and Houston dominated enroot to a blowout victory. The Astros have been really good against teams with a winning record this season, so it wasn’t surprising to see them knock off a very talented White Sox squad. What is surprising, though, is that the Astros are home dogs tonight with Luis Garcia on the mound. Garcia isn’t a household name outside of Houston, but he will be soon, as this kid is pitching at a very high level. Garcia has an ERA of 2.10 at Minute Maid Park, and he had picked up winning decisions in 5 straight starts before dropping his last game, on the road, against the Twins.
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 18, 2021
Yeah, Carlos Rodon is having his best season ever for the South Siders, but for whatever reason, his stellar results haven’t converted to nearly as many wins as it should have, as the White Sox are just 3-3 in his last 6 starts. I hate to be on the other side of the White Sox, especially with Carlos Rodon on the bump, but I just can’t resist backing the Astros, who have the 2nd best home record in the AL this year, as home dogs.
Cincinnati Reds (+180) at San Diego Padres
The Reds burned me last night, blowing a late lead that cost us a parlay winner, but I will give them a shot at redemption today as huge underdogs against the Padres. Tony Santillan gets the start tonight for Cincinnati, and the former 2nd round draft pick has been excellent this season, both in the minors and in the show. Santillan made 6 starts at triple-A Louisville and posted a strong 2.78 ERA and an impressive 12.6 K/9 ratio. That performance earned him a spot on the big club, and in his MLB debut last week, the 24-year-old rookie held the Colorado Rockies to just a single earned run in 4.2 innings pitched. Santillan was once a top-100 prospect in baseball, coming in as high as 69th, so he is a guy that Red’s fans have been waiting to see pitch in the Big Leagues for a long time, and I expect big things out of him, as he has great swing and miss stuff.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 18, 2021
San Diego gutted out the win last night, but they have still have only won 5 games this month, and that win snapped an ugly stretch of 11 losses in their previous 15 games. When you are fading a team that is laying (-200) or more in a baseball game, it is much more about IF the underdog can win, rather than WILL they win. You don’t have to win a bet like this one very often to show a long-term profit, and with the Reds having won 11 of 13 before blowing last night’s game, they have plenty of momentum and probably shouldn’t be this big of dogs against anybody, with as great as they have been in the last couple of weeks. This one is high risk, but equally, high reward, give me the Reds.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Oakland Athletics +123
- Houston Astros -105
- Cincinnati Reds +180
$100 Bet Pays $1,220
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Cleveland Indians (-129) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Both of these starting pitchers can’t be trusted, so I will call it a wash, and instead focus on the overall strength of these teams. On the one hand, you have the Cleveland Indians, who are 10 games above .500 on the year and have a winning record on the road at 18-15. On the other hand, you have the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are sitting in dead last place in the NL Central Division, a whopping 15 games back already, and are in complete free fall, having lost their last 10 games in a row. I guess the lack of star power on the mound for Cleveland has kept this line tight? Whatever the case may be, the books got this one wrong, as Cleveland is the far superior team and is going to win this game. I would say that the Indians are underpriced by at least 30 points in this one, and I love a play on the Tribe at this number.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals (-124)
The Mets and the Nationals have made things fairly easy for us this season, back them at home, and fade them on the road. Despite being the best home team in the National League, the Mets are actually pretty bad on the road, and for Washington, they are awful away from the Nation’s Capital, but they have a winning record at Nationals Park. No player exemplifies that trend more than Mets starter Joey Lucchesi, as he has a 1.50 ERA at Citi Field and a 7.29 ERA when he pitches anywhere else. Nat’s starter Erick Fedde has had his ups and downs this season, but he is coming off of his best outing of the year in his last start, shutting out the San Francisco Giants at home in 5 innings of work. And going back to late last month, Fedde hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts. Home/Road splits are some of my favorite indicators on games, and I will let strong trends in all directions of this one guide me to a play on Washington.
Toronto Blue Jays (-177) at Baltimore Orioles
We already talked about how I feel about Robbie Ray, has he has gotten back to his roots recently, and I see him mowing through the Orioles tonight. Toronto has struggled a bit this month, but that has been more about their impossibly tough schedule, with recent series against the Astros, White Sox, Red Sox, and Yankees, all teams that project out as in the playoff conversation. Now that they catch a break with this road trip to Baltimore, I see the Blue Jays taking out those frustrations on this hapless Orioles team that has lost 8 games in a row. This is one of those low hanging fruit plays where you lay a little wood and get paid.
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (-108)
The Seattle Mariners broke our hearts last night when they came back late to shock the Tampa Bay Rays, and they are in a good spot today to knock off the Rays again, with Yusei Kikuchi getting the start. Kikuchi is quietly emerging as a reliable starter for the M’s, and he has pitched mostly great for Seattle. Kikuchi had a streak of 6 consecutive quality starts that was snapped earlier this month, but he started a new streak in his last outing, blanking the Cleveland Indians over 7 innings of work, scattering just 3 hits. The Rays will go with Michael Wacha as an opener tonight to try and tie up the series. Wacha hasn’t worked more than 3 innings in a start since April, and despite not being in games very long, he almost always gives up at least a couple of runs. Since moving him into this opener role, Wacha has allowed runs in 5 of 6 appearances and has given up a total of 9 runs in 14 innings. This is a coin flip game, and the books have the price right, but my gut tells me that the Mariners continue their home field success and win again tonight at T-Mobile Park.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Cleveland Indians -129
- Washington Nationals -124
- Toronto Blue Jays -177
- Seattle Mariners -108
$100 Bet Pays $967
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!