Our smoking hot season betting on Major League Baseball continued yesterday, as we again killed the game, running up a 10-3 overall record and nailing a 3-team parlay for a juicy $700 payout. Our money line winners came on Yankees (-165), Indians (-167), Giants run line (+132), Rockies (+170), Nationals (-167), Mets run line (-118), and Athletics (-124). The win on the Rockies was especially sweet, as we faded the Padres that were laying (-200) and managed to back the Rockies as home dogs in all 3 of their games against the Padres and cashed all 3 tickets.
🎶 Sweep there it is 🎶#RoxWynn!
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) June 17, 2021
Our parlay win came via a 3-team totals parlay when Padres/Rockies over 12, Rangers/Astros over 9, and Angels/Athletics over 9, all came in. This was our 3rd parlay hit in the last 3 days, totaling nearly $3,000 in winnings! We will jump right back into it today, looking to stay red-hot, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (-122)
If you are a regular reader of my parlay of the day betting picks, you will know that I have been following several very strong trends this season. Fading the Rockies, Rangers, and the DBacks on the road, taking the over in the Angels games, and backing the White Sox and Rockies at home, have been some of my favorite regular plays this season. But even with as strong as those trends have been, I am not sure that any of them have been as strong as the Mets when they play at home. The Mets have the top home field winning percentage in the majors right now, with a borderline absurd 20-6 record at Citi Field. You aren’t hearing a lot about the Mets, with the exception of the media covering Jacob deGrom’s unreal season and his myriad of injuries, but the Mets currently hold the biggest division lead in all of baseball, and this team is for real.
🔟 games over .500 mood. pic.twitter.com/PmOQSaTOql
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 17, 2021
It is looking like deGrom is going to end up back on the IL after being pulled yesterday with shoulder tightness, despite being perfect through 3 innings and striking out 8 of the 9 guys that he faced. Maybe with deGrom out of the picture, Taijuan Walker will get a share of the limelight, as he too is having a breakout season for New York. If deGrom wasn’t having the best season in modern pitching history, Walker would be getting mentioned in the Cy Young Award conversation in the NL, with a 6-2 record and 2.12 ERA. At home, he has been remarkable, as he is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 6 starts. The Mets are 6-0 when Walker pitches in the Big Apple so far in 2021. In this game, we have a team that rarely losses at home, with a starter that never losses at home, as small favorites over a Chicago team that is 14-20 on the road. That just doesn’t make a lot of sense to me at all. Yeah, the Cubs have won 6 straight games when Kyle Hendricks starts, but this line feels off when you look at how great the Mets and Walker have been in NYC. I am laying a little wood and backing the Mets as undervalued home favorites.
Milwaukee Brewers (-152) at Colorado Rockies
I have been riding the Rockies hard at home this season. I took them in all 3 games of their last series against the San Diego Padres, and they picked up the unlikely series sweep and got us paid big, as they were home dogs in each game. Colorado is an embarrassment on the road, but at Coors Field, they are actually great, with a 23-14 record. All of that Rockies home dog love aside, I am going to fade them today in Denver, as Brandon Woodruff is just too good not to want to back at this price. There are so many pitchers having amazing seasons in the National League right now with deGrom doing what he does, Corbin Burnes posting some of the best K/W ratios we have ever seen, and Max Scherzer looking like vintage Mad Max, that there are guys having career years, that don’t even get a mention. Brandon Woodruff is one of those guys, as his 1.53 ERA is 3rd best in the majors, trailing only deGrom and the Giant’s Keven Gausman.
— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) June 16, 2021
On the road, Woodruff has been lights out with a 0.67 ERA in 6 starts. He has yet to allow more than a single earned run in any road start this year, and while that is likely to change tonight in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains, his WHIP of 0.72 tells me that he is going to do a great job of keeping runners off of the base paths. German Marquez has been excellent at Coors Field this season, and in his last 3 starts at home, he has allowed just 2 total earned runs in 20 innings pitched. But at the end of the day, I just can’t resist being able to back the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff at this price. The data tells me betting against the Rockies as home dogs is a risky proposition, but it also tells me that Milwaukee is one of the best road teams in the league too. Something’s gotta give in this one, and I think the Rockies’ modest 3-game winning streak comes to an end tonight as Brandon Woodruff is going to shut them down.
Tampa Bay Rays (-177) at Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners failed to pick up the sweep yesterday against the Minnesota Twins, but they will keep their heads high on this long 9-game homestand with a winning record so far at 2-1, as they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to town. Seattle’s entire roster has been decimated by injuries this season, and the M’s really need young starter Justin Dunn to step up and be a pitcher that they can count on to eat up innings and win games. Dunn has struggled with his command all season long, and it has been a shame, as when he throws strikes, players have a hard time barreling him up, and when he is sharp, he looks like a top of the rotation type of talent. Dunn got roughed up in his last outing, but prior to that, he posted a 2.52 ERA in the month of May. The major problem for Dunn has been run support, as the Mariner’s lineup has scored him just 6 total runs of support in his last 5 starts combined. Not surprisingly, Seattle has lost 5 of those 6 games.
“You wanna see some real speed?”
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) June 16, 2021
It is hard to expect Seattle to be much better today against Ray’s starter Rich Hill. The Rays let Charlie Morton and Blake Snell leave in the offseason, and the big-name guy they brought in to replace them was none other than Rich Hill! I know, underwhelming, right? But it seems like the Rays can turn just about anybody into an All-Star on the mound, and Hill took home the AL Pitcher of the Month honors in May when he posted a 0.78 ERA in 6 starts. This is going to be a low scoring game, where runs are going to be hard to come by. The Rays are built to win these exact types of games, and with their MLB best 24 road wins this season, I like Tampa Bay to take care of business against this offensively challenged Mariner’s squad. I have been betting on Seattle quite a bit this season as dogs, as they have more underdog wins than any other team in the majors, but Rich Hill and the Rays are going to be too much for them tonight. I’ll call this one at a 3-1 final with Tampa Bay handing Seattle their 2nd consecutive home loss.
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- New York Mets -122
- Milwaukee Brewers -152
- Tampa Bay Rays -177
$100 Bet Pays $473
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves Over 9 Runs (-110)
What is going on in the ATL right now? The Braves got hammered for 20 total runs in their 2-game series with the Boston Red Sox, and despite the fact that they scored 16 runs of their own, they lost both games. 3 weeks ago, I would have told you that Cardinal’s John Gant was the surprise player of the year in the NL, as he was cruising with a 1.61 ERA through the month of May, but the wheels have fallen off for him recently, as he has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts, a stretch spanning just 5.2 innings worked. Walks have plagued Gant all season long, and he has handed out 11 free passes to 1st base in 11.2 innings pitched this month. Charlie Morton hasn’t been much better for Atlanta, as he has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 14 innings and has an ERA of nearly 5 runs at home this year. If this game is anything like the last couple of games we have seen in Hotlanta, this total ends up going way over, in what should be an explosive game.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
Wash, rinse, and repeat, I am again taking the over in the Angel’s game. I have taken the over in Halo’s games a lot this year, and I have been on the over every day this week, and they have yet to disappoint, as each of their last 6 games has ended up hitting double digits runs scored. Sometimes the Angels score a bunch of runs, sometimes they give up a bunch of runs, but either way, a bunch of runs almost always hit the board when this team plays. Shohei Ohtani is the most exciting player in baseball right now, but he always gives up at least a couple of runs, and he rarely ever gets deep into games, meaning we are going to see this awful Angels bullpen sooner rather than later. Oh, and did I mention that the Tigers are starting a 23-year-old kid in his first-ever Major League start tonight in Matt Manning? Yeah, give me the over and likely WAY over.
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
We just talked about how Justin Dunn has been mostly great for Seattle, but that the M’s never seem to score when he pitches. I don’t want to single Dunn out too much, though, as the Mariners can’t score for any of their starters, as they have the lowest team batting average in the AL, at an anemic .212. Rich Hill is going to deliver his standard 5-6 innings of 1-run ball, and Justin Dunn will be serviceable enough to keep this total well under before handing it off to the bullpen. These teams both play a lot of low scoring games, and this will be another one where we don’t see many crooked numbers hitting the scoreboard.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves Over 9 Runs -110
- Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels Over 8.5 Runs -110
- Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners Under 8.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants -1.5 Runs (+110)
If the Arizona Diamondbacks lose today, they will etch their names into the history books, but not in a way that they would ever want, as the DBacks have a chance to break the all-time record for the longest road losing streak in Major League Baseball history, today in San Francisco. Arizona has lost 22 straight games on the road, and if they hit number 23, they will officially be the all-time worst. Not only have I been betting against Arizona almost every single day during this losing streak, many times, I have been fading them on the run line, as they are rarely even competitive in most road games. I took the Giants on the run line yesterday and got paid, as the DBacks again got blown out, and I will do that again today. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?
Let’s put a bow on this thing.
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) June 17, 2021
San Francisco will start Kevin Gausman, who all of the sudden decided to turn into Sandy Koufax at age 30 and is mowing through opposing hitters to the tune of a 1.43 ERA. When Gausman pitched against these DBacks last month, he didn’t allow even a single run in 5 innings and picked up the win for his efforts. Yeah, Zac Gallen has been respectable for the DBacks, but it hasn’t really mattered, as they have lost his last 2 starts and 3 of his 5 on the year anyway. Similar to the New York Mets, the Giants just don’t lose at home often, as they are 21-9 at Oracle Park this season. You might not know it if you don’t live in the Bay Area, but the Giants are tied for the best record in MLB, and their +80-run differential tells me that they love to run up the score on teams. This one almost feels too easy, as the DBacks are a joke away from home right now, and I will take full advantage of it and take the Giants on the run line at a much better price than I deserve.
Cincinnati Reds (+150) at San Diego Padres
I know I have bet against the Padres a lot this week, but those bets were more of a function of how great the Rockies have been at home, and how mediocre the Padres have been on the road, than a testament to how talented this Padres team actually is. I actually really like this Padres roster, and I think they are mortal locks to make the postseason, despite playing in the best division in baseball, the NL West. But here I am today, again, finding myself betting against the Friars. San Diego is just 4-13 in their last 17 games, and they run into a Reds team that is starting to believe in themselves, as Cincy has won 11 of their last 13 games, and they are quickly shooting up the standings in the crowded NL Central Division, just 2 games out of 1st place entering play today.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 16, 2021
Reds starter Wade Miley has pitched his brains out this season. His only bad outing was the start after his no-hitter, which is notoriously a tough spot for a pitcher. In his last 4 starts, he has been great, working a total of 22.2 innings and giving up just 4 earned runs. In his 11 starts this season, Miley has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer 9 times. Padres starter Joe Musgrove has had a nice season for San Diego as well, but despite his stellar results, the Padres don’t seem to win all that often when pitches. The Padres are 6-7 in his 13 starts, and they have lost each of his last 3 outings. I hate to kick a team while they are down, but the Reds as big dogs are the play in this one. San Diego is going to get things figured out at some point, but until they do, I will keep fading them as long as the books keep making them favorites.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- San Francisco Giants -1.5 Runs +110
- Cincinnati Reds +150
$100 Bet Pays $525
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (-106)
All the New York Yankees do when Michael King pitches is lose baseball games. King has made 9 appearances this season for the Bronx Bombers, and the Yankees have lost 8 of those games. Not all of those losses are really his fault, as he hasn’t been too awfully bad most of the time, but there is something to be said about a guy that is used to losing every time he takes the mound. King has been particularly bad on the road, as he has worked 12.1 innings and has given up 10 runs. I almost can’t believe that New York is a road favorite in this game with King getting the nod, and I’ll do my best to ignore the fact that Blue Jay’s starter TJ Zeuch stinks too. This has been a very competitive series thus far, and I think Toronto finds a way to salvage a win today in game 3.
Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (-127)
The Houston Astros have the best record in the Major Leagues against teams with a winning record this season, as the Astros step their game up when they play solid competition. Houston has won 6 of Jose Urquidy’s last 7 starts, and I think that they stay hot and win this game tonight at home. Dylan Cease has been fantastic at home for Chicago, but on the road, he is a very mediocre 2-2 with a 5.79 ERA. The White Sox are tied with the Giants for the best record in baseball, but most of their success has come in the Windy City, where they are 27-12. On the road, the White Sox are a very average 16-13. Both of these teams are steaming hot right now, and this is going to be a blockbuster series, and I see Houston jumping out to the series lead tonight in game 1 from Minute Maid Park.
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs (+100)
We already talked about how I think this game is going to be a slugfest, and in a game where we are almost certainly going to see a bunch of runs hit the scoreboard, covering the run line won’t be nearly as difficult as it would be in a lower-scoring game. Tiger’s starter Matt Manning was a first-round draft pick back in 2016 and was rated as high as the 17th best prospect in baseball in 2020, so it makes sense that he is now hitting the Big Leagues at age-23, but when you see what he has been doing in the minors this season, it makes you wonder if the timing is right to send this guy to the show.
A matchup you won’t want to miss!
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) June 17, 2021
Manning has made 7 starts this season for triple-A Toledo, and he has gotten brutalized for an ERA north of 8 runs. Homers have been the biggest issue for Manning, as he has already allowed 11 long balls in just 32.2 innings pitched. This is a tough spot for a young guy that struggles to keep the ball in the ballpark, as the Angels are 4th in the AL in home runs and 5th in slugging percentage. This one is going to get ugly, and as long as the Angels bullpen doesn’t give away our lead late, we are in great shape to cash a dog money ticket on the Angels laying a run and a half at home.
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres Under 8 Runs (-110)
Our final play of the day comes to us from sunny San Diego as the Padres host the Reds. I already made my play on the Reds as road dogs, and with Wade Miley and Joe Musgrove both pitching really well this season for their respective teams, this feels like a low-scoring game. I would have expected a total a bit lower with this much firepower on the mound, and I will jump on the under 8 runs before the sharps bet it down to 7.5 or lower.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Toronto Blue Jays -106
- Houston Astros -127
- Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs +100
- Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres Under 8 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $1,327
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!