Yesterday was a bit of a slow day for Major League Baseball, and with a couple of those games coming early in the morning and another game getting canceled, there wasn’t a lot of action to go around on what ended up being a bit of a lazy day of ball. But despite the lack of betting opportunities, we did what we do best, and that is, deliver max value! We nailed our all underdog parlay for a juicy $393 payout, which was plenty to lock up a profit for the day.
The bet came in when we backed the Miami Marlins at home, laying a run and a half on the run line, against the Colorado Rockies. I very rarely take run line bets, and home run line bets are even rarer, but the Rockies are on pace to be the worst road team in Major League Baseball history, so laying that run and a half didn’t remotely scare me. After Miami jumped out to a 6-0 lead, I knew I had nothing to worry about, and the bet came in without a sweat, with Miami taking it 11-4. The other side of the bet was on the Chicago White Sox as home dogs to the Toronto Blue Jays. The White Sox have the best home record in MLB, and I am blind betting them as home dogs any chance that I can get. Chicago took care of business, and we cashed our 2-team all-dog ticket.
A rocky series?
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) June 11, 2021
In reality, the bet was supposed to be a 3-teamer, as we also had the San Francisco Giants (+150) as well, but their game with the Washington Nationals was rained out, so we didn’t get a shot at what would have been a payout worth more than a thousand bucks! Today we have a full slate of games on tap, and we will get right back at it, delivering max value, on everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-175)
Sometimes you just have to pick the low hanging fruit, lay a little wood, and get paid. That is what we are going to do today in Tampa Bay, as the Rays host the Baltimore Orioles. We could break down this pick with one sentence, as this one boils down to backing the team with the best record in the American League against the team with the worst record in the American League. Oh, you need more than that? How about the fact that only the Texas Rangers have fewer road wins in the AL than Baltimore does this year? Still not convinced that backing the Rays is free money?
Yarbs is back on the mound pic.twitter.com/8nzY7UuIjL
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) June 11, 2021
Orioles starter Keegan Aiken has appeared in 6 games this season, and Baltimore has lost 5 of those games. He has actually pitched fairly well, but it hasn’t really mattered, as Baltimore always losses anyway. The exact opposite is true for Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough, as he hasn’t always been sharp this season, but the Rays still seem to find ways to win lots of games when he pitches, as they have won 7 of his last 9 starts, including 4 straight. If you are a regular reader of my daily picks, you will know that I much prefer to play underdogs, but sometimes you just gotta snatch up some free money. The Rays could easily be much larger favorites in this game, and I will take advantage of the undervalued line and back Tampa Bay at home.
Atlanta Braves (-118) at Miami Marlins
Charlie Morton hasn’t been as consistent this season as he has been in recent years, but he still has the ability to pitch at a high level. In his last 4 starts, Morton has worked a combined 23 innings and allowed just 7 total earned runs. The Braves won all 4 of those games, and despite their overall inability to string together wins this season, they have been great when Morton takes the mound. The veteran right-hander has actually been better on the road than at home so far in 2021, with a 3.47 ERA in 4 road starts. I expect Morton to be strong tonight against this Marlin’s team that has been one of the lowest scoring teams in the National League all season long.
Here is tonight’s #Braves starting lineup vs. the Marlins.
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) June 11, 2021
Sandy Alcantara is undeniably talented, but his stellar production hasn’t always equaled wins for the Marlins. Miami is 6-7 this season when Alcantara starts, and several of those losses have been hard-luck losses for the still just 25-year-old starter. The bad luck has been particularly tough at home for Alcantara, as he has a 2.29 ERA in 6 starts, but Miami has lost 4 of those 6 games. In his last 2 home starts, he has worked 15 total innings and has allowed just 3 earned runs. The Marlins lost both games. Miami is better at home than on the road, and the Braves haven’t been very good at winning games in opposing team’s ballparks, but this is too good of a price not to want to back the Braves as they are the far more talented squad.
Houston Astros (-167) at Minnesota Twins
The Houston Astros have been swinging a heavy bat this month, as they are scoring a bunch of runs, which is leading to a lot of wins. In their last 6 games, Houston is averaging over 7 runs per game. It is hard to expect them to cool down tonight in Minnesota, against Twin’s starter Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker is an embarrassing 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA at home, and in his last outing, he got hammered for 9 runs in the first inning while only recording a single out. The Twins are 3-8 this season with Shoemaker pitching, and in those 3 games that he won, his team scored an average of 10 runs of support. Quite simply, Minnesota can’t win when Shoemaker pitches unless they score a ton of runs, and when you look at Jose Urquidy getting the nod for Houston, that just isn’t going to happen in this one.
— Houston Astros (@astros) June 10, 2021
Urquidy got roughed up in his last start by the hard-hitting Toronto Blue Jays, but in the month of May, he was outstanding, with a 3-0 record and 1.14 ERA. Houston had won his previous 5 starts before last week’s slip-up, and I expect him to get right back on track today on the road. Betting against the Twins has been a favorite play of mine this season, as they have been awful, yet they are still being priced reasonably. Matt Shoemaker shouldn’t even be pitching in the majors right now, and if the Twins weren’t a train wreck, I am sure that he would have been yanked from this rotation long before now. A guy like Matt Shoemaker only gets to start for a team that doesn’t really care about winning, and if the Twins don’t care whether or not they win this game, why should we? Give me Houston, as this one could get ugly!
Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Tampa Bay Rays -175
- Atlanta Braves -118
- Houston Astros -167
$100 Bet Pays $465
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
We tried to take the under in this game yesterday, but Mother Nature decided we weren’t going to play the game, and our bet was refunded when the game got rained out. But it’s looking like we can get the identical total as we had yesterday, today, and nothing happened overnight to change my mind on this being a low-scoring game. Both of these starters, Anthony DeSclafani and Max Scherzer, have been outrageously good this season, and this game has 3-2 written all over it. I try not to make a habit of playing the under on such low totals, but both of these guys are capable of pitching deep into this game and not giving up any runs, so the under is my play today from the Nation’s Capital.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs (-110)
I don’t mind game totals of 7.5 when you have guys like Max Scherzer and Anthony DeSclafani pitching, but to see that same total in this game, with Mike Foltynewicz getting the start, is hard to understand. It’s not like Foltynewicz has been awful, but his road ERA is north of 5 runs, and against this Dodgers team that is capable of running up the score in a hurry, it wouldn’t shock me to see the Boys in Blue push this game to the over all on their own. And as great as Clayton Kershaw has been in his career, we are starting to see some cracks in the facade, as he has gotten smashed for 5 runs in each of his last 2 starts, and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in a start 5 times this season. I can’t imagine that the Rangers are going to hammer Kersh, but I also don’t think the future Hall of Famer is going to dominate either. Expect Foltynewicz to do most of the heavy lifting here, but don’t be shocked if Kershaw pitches in as well, to send this one to the over.
Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians Under 9 Runs (-110)
Runs have been hard to come by for both of these teams this season as the Seattle Mariners have the lowest team batting average in the majors (.209) and the Indians are 14th in the American League in runs scored. Even with mediocre starters on the mound, I would expect this game to be lower scoring, and with Aaron Civale and Justin Dunn starting for their respective teams, with both guys being quality pitchers, this total feels at least a full run too high, if not more. More to come on this game below, but just know, I am jumping on the under in what I expect to be a low-scoring and highly competitive contest.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals Under 7.5 Runs -110
- Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs -110
- Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians Under 9 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Seattle Mariners (+150) at Cleveland Indians
We just talked about how I see this as a very competitive game, and I am quite surprised that I can get the Mariners as such big dogs. Yeah, Aaron Civale has done a great job of winning games, as his 8 wins on the year are tied for the 2nd most in all of baseball. But Justin Dunn has pitched really well this season for Seattle as well, and the Mariners have done an amazing job of winning games as underdogs, as they have more underdog wins than any other team in the game this year. Dunn missed his last start, but after a quick stint on the IL, he gets right back to it today, and Mariner’s fans are hoping that he can pick up where he left off, as he posted a 2.52 ERA in the month of May. Walks have plagued Dunn throughout his short MLB career, but the guy is exceedingly tough to barrel up and has allowed just 27 base hits in 45.1 innings this season.
No. 1️⃣6️⃣ for No. 1️⃣7️⃣ pic.twitter.com/ILweEaBLTH
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) June 10, 2021
Aaron Civale has racked up a bunch of wins this season, but several of those wins have been a bit lucky. Unlike Sandy Alcantara, who we mentioned earlier can’t catch a break and loses even when he pitches great, Civale seems to win no matter how he performs. Civale has been struggling as of late, as he has given up 8 total runs in his last 2 starts combined, including getting lit up for a whopping 5 home runs. Civale faced the M’s earlier this season, and Seattle handed him his first loss of the year when he got tagged for 5 runs, all earned, back in mid-May. I completely understand why Cleveland is the favorite in this game, but this number is off. I see the Indians as maybe -110 or -115 in this matchup, and to have them at -175 doesn’t make a lot of sense.
San Francisco Giants (+150) at Washington Nationals
It hurts me at a deep level to have to bet against Max Scherzer. I am not sure there is a pitcher I have backed more in the last decade than Mad Max, and he is pitching his brains out right now, enjoying one of his best statistical seasons ever at age 96 (estimated age). Which is certainly saying a lot for the future first-ballot Hall of Famer. But the San Franciso Giants have the best record in the Major Leagues. They don’t have a good record, they have the best record, and they shouldn’t ever be this big of underdogs in any situation, particularly against a Washington team that is sitting in dead last place in the NL East Division. As amazing as Scherzer has been, the Nats are just 7-5 in his 12 starts, and they have lost 2 of his last 3 outings. Washington is awful at the plate, as they are 27th in MLB in runs scored, and if Scherzer isn’t perfect, his team won’t win.
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) June 10, 2021
Anthony DeSclafani had one real bad outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but besides that one bad day, the guy is having a career year for San Francisco. When you look at the teams that this guy has had to pitch against this year, it makes his results look even better, as he has faced the Dodgers twice, the Padres three times, as well as the Cubs and the Reds. Those are some of the hardest-hitting teams in the National League, and despite the stiff competition, he has been really good. Even with how great Anthony DeSclafani has pitched this season, Max Scherzer is still clearly the better side of the starting pitching matchup in this game. But the public loves to overvalue the starters in a game, and they forget that baseball is a team game and that the starters are just a part of the equation. You’re telling me that I can bet on the best team in baseball, with a pitcher that is having a career year and looking like an All-Star, and I can get +150 to do it? Yeah, that is far too sweet to pass up on, give me the G-Men.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (+135)
Yesterday we took the White Sox as home dogs, and I mentioned that I would blind bet Chicago each and every time the books let me as home underdogs, as they have the best home-field record in baseball. But, as great as Chicago has been in the Windy City, they are a very average 13-13 on the road. Lucas Giolito hasn’t been the same guy this season, as he has been in the last couple of years for Chicago, as he has struggled to stay consistent. In his last start, Giolito pitched against these very same Tigers at home, and he allowed 4 earned runs and was charged with the loss.
Momma I made it 🙌🏻 @PitchingNinja https://t.co/jevlGjaVvI
— Tarik Skubal (@TarikSkubal) June 6, 2021
The winning pitcher in that game? Tonight’s starter for Detroit, Tarik Skubal. Skubal did something that very few pitchers have been able to do this season, and that is, win in Chicago, and he earned that win by working 5 innings of 1-run ball. We just saw this matchup last week, and the Tigers took the game 4-3. And that game was in Chicago, where the White Sox seldom lose, and the Tigers are awful. Now that the series swings over to Motown, it shows some juicy value to be able to bet on the Tigers as major home dogs. Skubal has had some bad luck this season, which has led to a poor record, but his 3.27 ERA in Detroit tells me that he is going to be at least serviceable tonight at home.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Seattle Mariners +150
- San Francisco Giants +150
- Detroit Tigers +135
$100 Bet Pays $1,469
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
San Diego Padres at New York Mets (-167)
We have moved on from the conversation surrounding who the best pitcher in baseball is right now. At this point, you can’t even argue the other side of the debate, Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in the game, and the real question now is, will this guy have the best season in the modern era in 2021? DeGrom has an absurd 0.62 ERA this season, and he has yet to allow more than 1 earned run in any start this year. His K rate is through the roof, and in his last 2 starts, he has worked 13 shutout innings, allowing just 5 total hits while striking out 19, and walking only 1. His last start came against these Padres, and he was stupid good, tossing 7 shutout innings and striking out 11.
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 11, 2021
The Mets famously lost his first 2 starts this season, but since then, New York has won 6 of his last 7 starts, and he is a must bet at this price. On the other side of the mound, Blake Snell has a Cy Young Award in his trophy case as well, but the guy has a road ERA of 9.70, and the Padres are 0-6 when Snell starts on the road. Snell is trading on his name right now, as he has been bad overall and embarrassing on the road, and the fact that the Mets aren’t laying -220 in this game is a joke.
San Diego Padres at New York Mets Over 5.5 Runs (-110)
I bet baseball a lot. I have been betting baseball on a daily basis for over a decade, and I can never remember seeing a game total of 5.5 for a full 9 inning game. This is an insanely low number, and while I can understand that it is hard to set a total on a game when Jacob deGrom is pitching, as the guy has been stupid good, 5.5 is too low. Period, end of story. Snell threw a 1-hitter against the Padres in his last start, which is why this number is so low, but that game was in San Diego, this game is in New York. Snell got hammered for 12 total runs in his last 2 road starts, and if he continues with that weak production, this game will go over even if deGrom throws a perfect game. I love me some Jacob deGrom, but this line is silly.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-122)
Ross Stripling is starting to figure things out after a brutal start to the season, but much of that success has come at home. Stripling pitched against Boston in late May and got blasted for 6 runs in just 3.2 innings. It was his worst start of the season and not all that hard to see coming, as Boston has been one of the highest scoring teams in the AL all year long. Garret Richards stinks at Fenway Park, but I can’t resist being able to fade Ross Stripling on the road, and to be able to take Boston at such a reasonable price is a nice spot. The Red Sox have the 2nd most wins in the league, just a game back of Tampa Bay, and after seeing the Bo Sox break out the bats yesterday and plate double-digit runs, it has me feeling great about a repeat performance tonight in Beantown.
Los Angeles Angels (-143) at Arizona Diamondbacks
I was leading the charge of the Arizona Diamondbacks are the worst team in the Major Leagues campaign early in the season. You can call me an early adopter when it comes to DBacks hate, as this team is awful, and I have been screaming it from the mountain tops all season long. I have bet against the LA Angels a lot this season as well, as they are a train wreck too, but what Arizona has been doing in the last 5-6 weeks is shameful. Going back to May 1st, the DBacks are 6-31. That is a .166 winning percentage, that would be the worst of all time if the season were to end today. And while 37 games isn’t a full season by any means, it is about a quarter of the year, where the DBacks are playing at a level of bad we have never seen before. Right now, betting has been easy, just give me whoever the other team is every time Arizona plays, and I am going to be in great shape. This bet is a major fade of the DBacks, but the fact that I get to back the most exciting player in baseball, Shohei Ohtani, who struck out double digits in his last outing, is just the cherry on top of what is a really nice spot.
Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics (-143)
Our final bet of the day comes to us from Oakland, as the Athletics host the Royals. KC came back late last night to steal game 1 of this series in Oakland, to snap a 5-game losing streak. But I think it is right back to the loss column for the Royals today, as I just don’t trust Royal’s starting pitcher Brady Singer. Singer has an ERA approaching 6 runs on the road this year, and the Royals haven’t won any of his last 4 road starts. Wins have been tough to come by in general for Singer, as the Royals have lost 6 of his last 8 outings, and they are just 4-8 in his 12 starts in 2021. Oakland starter Cole Irvin has been shaky lately, but he went up to Coors Field and dazzled in the thin air of the Rocky Mountains in his last start, and I am hoping he can build on that strong production today at home.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- New York Mets -167
- San Diego Padres at New York Mets Over 5.5 Runs -110
- Boston Red Sox -122
- Los Angeles Angels -143
- Oakland Athletics -143
$100 Bet Pays $1,604
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!