The Los Angeles Dodgers put on a show last night when they hammered Rays starting pitcher Charlie Morton to jump out to a 5-0 lead and then coasted to a decisive 6-2 victory to regain the lead in the series. LA got homers from Justin Turner and Austin Barnes, and Walker Buehler worked six quality innings, allowing just one earned run on only three hits and struck out ten. It was a major statement from the Dodgers, and after dropping game two, the Boys in Blue are back in the driver’s seat.
After obliterating our game two prop bets when we went 4-1, and profited two and a half units, we gave just a little bit of it back in game three, as we went 2-3 on props. We did just fine on player props, as the over 5.5 Ks for Charlie Morton came in, and Randy Arozarena picked up a hit to go over his hit total of .5 as well. But the rest of our action was riding on the Rays, and they came out flat and disappointed.
— MLB (@MLB) October 24, 2020
While you hate to ever have a losing day, sometimes these games don’t turn out exactly as expected, and through game three, we are still winning at a 60% clip on prop bet action with a double-digit ROI! Today, we will look to keep up those winning ways when we give you five more prop bets that you should make right now on game four of the 2020 Major League Baseball World Series! Let’s get started!
Randy Arozarena Over .5 Hits -167
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? I have bet on Randy Arozarena getting a hit in each of the last two games, and both times he came through for us and cashed our ticket. The rookie sensation cracked his eighth home run of the postseason last night, and his .354 batting average leads the team. Julio Urias has been awfully tough to hit against in the playoffs this season, but when you look at how Arozarena has hit against left-handed pitching, you have to like his chances of getting a hit again tonight.
In the regular season, Arozarena hitting a sizzling hot .400 against lefties. In the postseason, he has continued that success against left-handers as he is hitting .304 against them in the playoffs. He doesn’t have a long history to pull from, but in his career, he is hitting .348 against left-handed pitching.
-Most hits by a rookie in a Postseason
-T-most home runs in a single Postseason
-Most total bases in a single Postseason pic.twitter.com/nGPUTw5JIT
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) October 24, 2020
This kid is the groove right now, and he just might be having the greatest postseason ever for a rookie. The Rays need their hottest hitter to step up big tonight, and in a spot where the data favors him heavily, I will back Arozarena to get a hit for the third consecutive game.
Mookie Betts Over .5 RBI +142
Mookie Betts is the straw that stirs the drink right now for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He is likely going to take home the National League MVP honors after a stellar first season in Hollywood. He is in a close race with Freddie Freeman, Marcel Ozuna, and Fernando Tatis JR. to take home the league’s highest honors, but if I had a vote, I am taking the best player on the best team, and that guy is Mookie Betts.
Betts has been able to do it all in this series so far for LA. He has four hits, two RBI, two runs scored, two walks, and four stolen bases. And all of that is on top of his Gold Glove level defense in the outfield. Betts is making a case as the best player in baseball, and if he leads this Dodgers team to their first World Series win since 1988, I think he officially stakes his claim as the best player in the game.
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) October 24, 2020
I mean, Mike Trout is great and all, but how many times can you finish out of the playoffs and really claim to be the best there is? Betts won a world title for the Boston Red Sox and is on the cusp of doing it again for the Dodgers. At some point, it can’t just be the raw stats that tell us who the best player is; they have to pass the eye test and win games too.
Betts is showing some nice value tonight to pick up a run batted in at +142. With Ryan Yarbrough on the mound for Tampa Bay, I would expect that Betts will have some at-bats with runners on board and a chance to drive in runs and cash our ticket on the over. Even if Betts can’t find a spot where he has runners on board to drive in, he can always score himself!
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 22, 2020
Betts finished the regular season with sixteen home runs, which was good for third in the National League. Really the only piece missing for Betts in this postseason has been home runs, as he only has one. But that one came in game one of this series, and it wouldn’t shock me if he knocked one in the stands at some point tonight as well.
The Dodgers bats are swinging hot right now, and that tells me that Betts is going to get opportunities to drive in runs, and with how well he has played all season long, it is hard to not think he will find a way to get the job done.
Clayton Kershaw To Win World Series MVP +650
This prop bet isn’t directly tied to this game, but right now is absolutely the time to take advantage of this inflated line. We all know about Clayton Kershaw’s long and checkered past in the postseason. Despite being the best pitcher of his generation, Kershaw has had many highly publicized struggles in the playoffs. But in game one of this series, he managed to shake off those postseason demons and pitch a really good game.
In game one, Kershaw worked six innings, giving up just one earned run on two hits while striking out eight. That win set the tone for this entire series and put the Dodgers in a great spot to win this series. As we look ahead to game four tonight, the Dodgers are heavily favored to win the game and take a 3-1 series lead.
If that line holds up and the Dodgers win, they will have a potential elimination game in game five, with the chance to end the series and take home the title. Oh, and who is expected to start in game five? You guessed it, Clayton Kershaw.
The @Dodgers gave the ball to Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 and he delivered 🔥
He joined Tom Verducci after the win! pic.twitter.com/QHDKOeAmJl
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 21, 2020
If Kershaw can start and win game five and clinch the World Series title, with his second win of the series, he is a mortal lock to win the World Series MVP trophy. Baseball loves a redemption story, and no story would be stronger than seeing Kershaw rise up as a World Series hero after coming up short so many times in the past. Even if the Dodgers don’t win tonight in game four, and Kershaw can win in game five, to again give the Dodgers a series lead, he will still have a very good shot at the award, with two wins in the series.
Now, if Kershaw starts game five, and playoff choke-shaw rears his ugly head again, and he gets hammered, this bet is toast. But at a very juicy price of +650, I think you can easily make a case that Kershaw gets a chance to pitch and win in an elimination game, and if that is the case, this line shows outrageous value. I have backed Kershaw in the playoffs and gotten burned more times than I can count, but something tells me that this year is different, and that Kershaw and the Dodgers will silence the haters and take home the title.
Julio Urias To Get A Win +250
Julio Urias has been an absolute stud for the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2020 postseason. Urias has been the next big thing for several years now after debuting as a teenager in 2016. The Dodgers have moved him along fairly slowly, and after a strong campaign last season that saw him post a 2.49 ERA in 37 appearances, the Dodgers gave him a shot as a regular in the rotation this year. Urias took full advantage of the opportunity and finished the regular season with a 3-0 record and 3.27 ERA.
And while Urias had a nice regular season, what he has done in the playoffs has been absolutely absurd. In four appearances, three of them coming as starts, Urias has worked sixteen innings and has allowed just one earned run! That is good for a 0.56 ERA. His strikeout to walk ratio has been elite at 16-3, and he has been very stingy giving up hits, as he has allowed only seven.
Julio Urías appreciation post.
He tossed 3 perfect innings to end the game. 👏 pic.twitter.com/pL5qtBpPNZ
— MLB (@MLB) October 19, 2020
Urias was the hero of game seven of the NLCS against the Atlanta Braves, as the Dodgers had basically nobody else to turn to late in the game, as the bullpen was decimated and overworked. In game seven, in a one-run game, with no room for error, Urias was perfect, literally.
Urias worked the final three innings, and it was nine up and nine down, to slam the door shut on the Braves and send his team to the World Series. That game seven outing, which came on just three days rest, is the highlight of his career up to this point.
On the surface, it may seem a bit wonky that the Dodgers are -180 to win the game, and their starting pitcher is +250 to get a win. But when you dig a little deeper, you can see why it is priced that way, as Urias isn’t a guy that is known for his ability to get deep into games. Urias rarely pitches more than five innings in a start, as in his fourteen starts this year, he has only gone past five innings in five of them. He has only thrown 100-pitches once all season.
In order for a starting pitcher to get credited with a win, they must pitch at least five innings, leave the game with the lead, and the bullpen has to hold onto the lead. We won’t have as much room for error with Urias, as we would with, say, Clayton Kershaw or Walker Buehler, who both regularly get deep into games, but that doesn’t mean Urias can’t get a win.
— MLB (@MLB) October 19, 2020
In his previous two starts before that magical game seven relief appearances, Urias pitched exactly five innings, and in both games, was credited with the win. When I look at Tampa Bay starting Ryan Yarbrough tonight in game four, I see the Dodgers getting to him early and scoring some runs. Yarbrough has not been sharp in the playoffs as he has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has gotten blasted for three home runs in only 10.2 innings worked.
That tells me that as long as Urias pitches well, that he is going to get the five innings he needs, and he will leave the game with the lead. We will have to sweat out the Dodgers bullpen, particularly closer Kenley Jansen, who gave up another homer last night, but at the end of the day, that is all built into the price, and why we can get such an attractive number. I am backing the Dodgers to win the game and for Urias to get the winning decision.
Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs -110
I just talked about how Ryan Yarbrough hasn’t been very good in the postseason. He has managed to post a respectable ERA of 3.38, but to be honest, he has gotten pretty lucky to give up as few runs as he has. His WHIP of 1.31 tells me that he has been in a lot of jams. Yarbrough has given up eleven hits and three walks in just 10.2 innings. Just about every time he pitches, he has to pitch with runners on base.
This Dodgers team is not the team you want to mess around with in terms of putting runners on base, as they are going to make you pay for it more times than not. The Dodgers are averaging six runs per game through the first three games of this series. And that was with their trio of Cy Young Award caliber starters pitching. I am being pretty tough on Ryan Yarbrough, he isn’t all that bad, but he also surely isn’t Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, or Tyler Glasnow.
Raise the roof, JT. pic.twitter.com/BELKAh78Ma
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 24, 2020
The Dodgers have scored a bunch of runs against the Rays elite set of starters in this series. They hit Glasnow for six runs in 4.1 innings, Snell for two in 4.2 innings, and Morton for five in 4.2 innings. All of those guys are capable of going way deeper into games than Ryan Yarbrough can, and none of them made it out of the fifth inning. The Rays starters have a combined ERA of 8.56 through three games, and I am not sure anybody can argue that Yarbrough isn’t the worst starter the Rays are going to use in this series.
I think LA hammers Yarbrough early, and by the time the bullpen gets into the game, this total may already have hit the over. The Dodgers have shown the ability to score runs in bunches against the best the Rays have to offer on the mound, and now that they are going with a second-tier arm, in Ryan Yarbrough, things could potentially get ugly.
Tonight’s game four is likely to be a major turning point in this series. If the Dodgers can win the game and take a 3-1 series lead, history tells us that they are going to win the world title. If Tampa Bay can again fight back to tie the series up and get back to Snell, Glasnow, and Morton for potential games five through seven, they have a very real shot at stealing this series and breaking Dodger’s fans hearts once again.
However game four plays out, make sure that you stay tuned to TheSportsGeek for the duration of the series, as we will be right here bringing you all of the sharp betting advice you need to make money betting on the 2020 Major League Baseball World Series. Thanks for reading, and good luck betting what is sure to be an action-packed game four tonight!