March Madness is in full effect as we have conference tournament action all over the board and lots of teams wrapping up their regular season schedules this weekend as well. This is the time of year that teams play their way into, or out of, the NCAA tournament, and you need to pay close attention as the teams that are winning early in March, are the same teams that bust your NCAA tournament bracket late in March. We will dive in headfirst into all of the action with today’s parlay of the day picks!
Point Spread Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on point spread parlays. A point spread parlay is a parlay bet where all of the games bet are point spreads, and you will have to lay a little juice on each bet. A standard 3-team point spread parlay will payout 6-1, a 4-teamer pays out 11-1, and a 10-teamer pays out a whopping 720-1! As you can see, the payouts can get really big, really fast, on point spread parlays!
Northern Iowa Panthers at Drake Bulldogs (-6.5)
There might not be a single team in the nation with more on the line tonight than the Drake Bulldogs. Drake captivated the nation earlier this season when they won their first 18 games and made a rare appearance in the top-25 of the AP Poll. That fame was short-lived, though, as the Bulldogs lost two out of their next three games and quickly fell from the rankings. Drake then reeled off five straight victories before losing in the final game of the regular season, on the road at Bradley. Chief Bracketologist at ESPN, Joe Lunardi, has Drake as one of the last four teams getting into the tournament, but a loss tonight in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament would almost certainly drop them to the wrong side of the bubble.
It’s #ArchMadness Gameday!
Bulldogs vs. Panthers
🕔 5 p.m.
📺HOW TO WATCH 📺
— Drake Basketball (@DrakeBulldogsMB) March 5, 2021
These two teams played twice this year in a home and home series, and Drake won both games. At home, the Bulldogs smashed the Panthers 80-59. On the road, the Bulldogs gutted out a hard-fought 77-69 win to complete the season sweep. It is never easy to beat a team three times in one season, but it is fairly surprising to see Drake only laying -6.5-points on a neutral floor with so much on the line. No team in the country has been better against the spread this season than Drake as they are a sizzling hot 20-5 against the number, and I expect them to cover this one as well. Back the Bulldogs.
Valparaiso at Missouri State Bears (-7)
For our next pick, we stay right here in the Missouri Valley for the matchup between Missouri State and Valpo. Missouri State is solidly the 3rd best team in the league behind Drake and Loyola-Chicago, and in a normal season, this Bears team would be good enough to contend for the league title. But this is no normal season in the Valley as Drake and Loyola-Chicago have both been ranked nationally, and while Missouri State is MVC good, they aren’t top-25 good. That being said, they are a lot better than this Valpo team, as they rank a whopping 100 spots higher on Kenpom.
🏆 #ArchMadness Quarterfinals
📍 St. Louis | Enterprise Center
⏰ 8:00 p.m.
📺 https://t.co/6H9lbQFrMd (Fox Sports Midwest+)
📻 https://t.co/JsPT5WsDsH (KWTO) pic.twitter.com/MlMeMgLXsg
— Missouri State Basketball (@MSUBearsHoops) March 5, 2021
These teams matched up twice, both times on Valpo’s home floor, and the Bears won both games by double digits. I already talked about how hard it is to beat a team three times in one year, but there is just a significant talent gap between these two teams right now, and this is plain and simple a bad number. The Bears had won seven straight before dropping their last game of the year at Evansville, and I think they thump Valpo in this one and coast to the cover.
UAB Blazers at North Texas Mean Green (-5)
Coming into this season, I had North Texas as a sleeper contender in Conference USA this year. The Mean Green played a very aggressive non-conference schedule with true road games at Arkansas, Mississippi State, and West Virginia. They didn’t win any of those games, but they did hold their own and play well. Once conference play kicked off, the Mean Green reminded me why I liked them so much in the preseason. North Texas finished 2nd in the Conference USA West Division behind Louisiana Tech. But if you trust Kenpom’s rankings, North Texas is the top team in the conference.
UAB has been great at home, as they are 15-2. But on the road, they are just 4-4. The Blazers have played a soft schedule as they have only played two games all season long against teams ranked in the top-100. Both of those games came on the road at Louisiana State, and they lost both games. North Texas is 8-1 at home, and this feels like one of those home/away split games where the home team dominates. Kenpom has North Texas winning this game by seven points, so the five points feels like a bargain.
Point Spread Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Drake Bulldogs (-6.5) -100
- Missouri State Bears (-7) -110
- North Texas Mean Green (-5) -110
$100 Bet Wins $600
Money Line Magic
This next type of parlay we are going to look at is an all money line parlay. With these types of bets, you don’t care about points spreads, it is just who wins or loses the games that matter. Want to load up on a bunch of favorites and get paid when they all win? Do you smell a couple of big upsets? Parlay those together on a money line parlay, and you can get paid big!
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (-143) at North Alabama Lions
I backed Florida Gulf Coast last night, and they looked great, beating Lipscomb 72-60. That win advanced them in the ASUN Conference tournament, and despite the Eagles not playing many games this season due to various COVID-19 related delays, I have a good feeling about this Dunk City team. North Alabama picked up an upset of their own last night as well, as they won as the five seed over the four seed North Florida. That means that this semifinals game will be a five-six matchup, with one of these teams advancing to face either Liberty or Stetson in the finals with a trip to the NCAA tournament on the line.
𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗗𝗔𝗬!@ASUN_MBB Semifinals on the docket tonight
— FGCU Men’s Hoops (@FGCU_MBB) March 5, 2021
FGCU hosted the Lions for a pair of games in early February, and they dispatched them with relative ease in both games, winning by an average of 17.5 points. Both of these teams played last night, so there are going to be some tired legs on the court in this one, and the fact that Florida Gulf Coast has played just two games in the last month tells me that they are going to have the fresher legs. It will be a tight game, but I see the Eagles winning and advancing, and I am sure that Liberty fans are going to hate seeing the Eagles in the finals as this team has been known to do special things in March.
Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Morehead State Eagles (-127)
I really like this Morehead State team. They played the 14th toughest non-conference schedule in the country with games against Kentucky, Richmond, Ohio State, and Clemson. They hit conference play in the Ohio Valley Conference battle-tested, and it showed as they ran through much of the league. The Eagles won 16 of their last 17 games, and they are playing their best basketball of the year as they hit the conference tournament, with their eyes set on knocking off Belmont and punching their dance card.
PREVIEW: OVC rivals clash tonight in the @OVCSports men’s basketball tournament semifinals.
It’s @MSUEaglesMBB vs. eKU at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
— Morehead State Athletics (@MSUEagles) March 5, 2021
Eastern Kentucky had very much the opposite season, as they came out of the gates hot but have been sputtering as of late. The Colonels played a joke of a non-conference schedule, and after winning eight of their first nine conference games, the Colonels were sitting at 14-2 overall. But since then, Eastern Kentucky has lost four times, and they barely snuck past Austin Peay last night. The Eagles got the night off, and I expect them to be well-rested and win this game, and if the Eagles sneak into the madness, opposing teams better watch out as these kids can play.
Colorado State Rams at Nevada Wolfpack (-105)
Will Colorado State make the NCAA tournament this year? Joe Lunardi has them right at the cut line right now, with them currently on the right side of the bubble, but the Rams know they can ill afford any slip-ups. The Rams have played well recently, but when you look at their record, three of their four losses have come on the road, and Rams fans have to be sweating this game out, as Reno is a very difficult place for opposing teams to win.
Final Lawlor Gameday of the season!
— Nevada Basketball (@NevadaHoops) March 5, 2021
Nevada isn’t as good this year as they have been in recent years, but at home, the Wolfpack has been elite with a 9-1 record. Nevada hasn’t lost in Reno since December, including a couple of huge wins over a very good Boise State team. I smell upset again tonight, as I think Nevada shocks Colorado State and pushes them out of the NCAA tournament along the way.
Dayton Flyers at VCU Rams (-167)
Two weeks ago, I could have seen VCU as a bracket buster in March. The Rams caught fire late in the regular season with a six-game winning streak and wins over St. Bonaventure, Richmond, Saint Louis, and Dayton (twice). But the Rams didn’t close out the regular season well as they dropped two of their last three games, including a bad loss to George Mason at home. While those late-season struggles give me a little bit of pause, the games between VCU and Dayton this season weren’t all that competitive, with the Rams winning by an average of 16 points, and I think VCU gets their act together and finds a way to win this game tonight at home. The last time VCU hosted Dayton, they won by 23 points, expect more of the same.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -143
- Morehead State Eagles -127
- Nevada Wolfpack -105
- VCU Rams -167
$100 Bet Wins $848
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can back these teams getting the points, but the best way to get a huge return on your money is to take these teams on the money line!
Little Rock Trojans (+112) at App State Mountaineers
The Sun Belt Conference tournament starts today, and we are going to key in on a four-five matchup between App State and Little Rock. Neither of these teams had great seasons, and they both finished with losing record in league play. Both hit the postseason on losing streaks as App State has lost six of seven, and Little Rock had lost seven straight before winning their final game of the regular season. This play is just a data-driven play, as Kenpom has the Trojans winning, and if I can back them getting dog money in a coin flip game with the data on my side, that is what I am going to do.
San Francisco Dons at Loyola Marymount Lions (+104)
Loyola Marymount is a decent mid-major team. They haven’t been able to hang with the likes of Gonzaga and BYU at the top of the WCC, but they did win their last five games of the regular season against teams not named the Bulldogs or the Cougars. San Francisco finished their year playing awful, as they lost nine of their last twelve games, including their last six. Two of those three wins came over a 329th ranked Portland team. The Dons turned things around last night as they won against San Diego, but they are going to be tired tonight after just playing, and I love being able to back the Lions as underdogs against a team they have already beaten twice this year.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Loyola Marymount Lions +104
- Little Rock Trojans +112
$100 Bet Wins $333
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Boston College Eagles (+4) at Miami Hurricanes
Miami is awful this year. They lost their star player early in the season when Chris Lykes got hurt, and wins just have not been part of the equation for the Hurricanes. After winning their first three games of the season, Miami has lost 16 of their last 20 games. Every once in a while, Miami beats decent teams with wins over Purdue, Duke, and Louisville, but those are few and far between. BC isn’t any good either, but they did hammer Miami earlier this year by 22 points.
Regular season finale in Miami 👊 pic.twitter.com/r5rg6CBjEj
— BC Men’s Basketball (@BCMBB) March 5, 2021
This is just another coin flip game between two bad teams where you always want to be on the side getting the points, not laying them. Miami has home losses to Florida Gulf Coast, Pittsburgh, and Notre Dame, with none of those teams in consideration for the NCAA tournament, in addition to a host of other home floor losses. This is a straight fade of the Hurricanes as they just can’t be trusted.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-8.5) at Wake Forrest Demon Deacons
Wake Forrest might not be the worst team in the ACC this year, we are looking at you, Miami, but they are certainly in the conversation. The early betting sharps always like to back home underdogs, so when the Demon Deacons opened up as +12-point home dogs, the public hammered it. And while that line was inflated, the public never knows when to stop, and now that we can back Georgia Tech at this reasonable number, I’ll jump on the other side, fade the public, and back the Yellow Jackets laying some wood.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (+8) at Belmont Bruins
Belmont in the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference, and it looked like they were going to go undefeated in league play this year before they inexplicably lost their last two games of the regular season. Both of those games were tough spots on the road, but it was still shocking to see the Bruins lose back-to-back games after they had won 21 straight games prior. They won their opening game in the OVC tournament against a bad SIU Edwardsville team, and the Bruins have their sights set on another trip to the NCAA tournament.
👀 on the prize 🏆
— Belmont Basketball (@BelmontMBB) March 5, 2021
On paper, the Bruins are certainly the favorites, but there are some landmines along the path for Belmont. We already talked about how good Morehead State is, and I really like this Jacksonville State team as well. J-Ville State has won eight of their last nine games, with the lone loss coming at Belmont, where they gave the Bruins all they could handle, and they nearly picked up the upset victory. I expect another tight game tonight, and while Belmont might win and advance, I think the Gamecocks cover the spread and cash our ticket.
Western Carolina Catamounts at The Citadel Bulldogs (+3)
The Citadel is not good on the road this year. But they are decent at home, with an 11-2 home floor record. One of those eleven wins came over this Western Carolina team when they beat up on the Catamounts 74-63 just over a month ago. The Bulldogs lost by just a point when they played at WCU, and with this game being played on a neutral floor in Ashville, the Catamounts likely have a bit of a home-court advantage. Either way, it feels like three points is too high for this one as I expect a very tightly contested game. I’ll snatch up the points and hope for a barn burner.
Kent State Golden Flashes (+5.5) at Buffalo Bulls
Kent State isn’t getting nearly enough love right now playing in the MAC, Toledo gets most of the attention in the league, but the Golden Flashes are a quality basketball team. They have been a bit of a road warrior squad this season as they have road wins over Detroit, Central Michigan, Ohio, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, and Miami-Ohio. Even when they have lost on the road, they have played well. Kent State took Virginia into overtime in Charlottesville, they lost by four points at Akron, and they lost by only two points at Toledo. Buffalo is a solid team, but they have home losses to the like of Toledo, Ohio, and Bowling Green, and they are going to be on upset alert tonight at home. I’m taking Kent State and the points.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Boston College Eagles (+4) -110
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-8.5) -110
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks (+8) -110
- The Citadel Bulldogs (+3) -110
- Kent State Golden Flashes (+5.5) -110
$100 Bet Wins $2,000
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Thanks for reading, and make sure that you stay tuned to TheSportsGeek for all of your March Madness betting advice and be sure to check out our college hoops betting page, where we bring you free daily betting picks each and every day!