Wow, was that not the fight of the year?!
Flyweights Deiveson Figueredo and the Assassin baby Brandon Moreno put on what UFC President Dana White called the greatest MMA Flyweight fight in history.
You know it has to be a good scrap for Dana to compliment the Flyweights.
For whatever reason, fans seem to care less about the smaller guys but I remember the room’s reaction when the Cyril Gane fight with Junior Dos Santos started slowly. Everyone had their head down and looked at their phones.
I remember commenting to everyone that normally, fans don’t want to miss a second of heavyweight action because the fight can end in an instant. That’s what we saw from Gane in the second round.
Well, I saw it. Everyone else caught the replay because they were in those phones. When the main event came around, though, everyone was glued to the screen for the full 25 minutes.
Brandon Moreno put on a heck of a performance and arguably won 3 of the 5 rounds against the Brazilian champion. Brandon took a lot of shots that I doubt anyone else in the division could have weathered.
He also delivered some clean ones of his own, but you could tell there was still a massive differential in the power of the two men.
We were on the over 2.5 rounds. While it was a sweat because the two men were throwing down, I felt pretty confident that the Mexican fighter would show a great deal of durability. I don’t know where I get all these crazy ideas but it was just a thought.
That hit, of course, and we were also on the Figueredo by decision line which I thought had very good value at (+550). Turns out, it did but referee Jason Herzog obviously has some little man syndrome of his own.
He didn’t like other 5’6”ers in there getting all the spotlight so he takes a point from Figueredo for a low blow, the first low blow mind you. It was supposed to be an unattached knee to the head but if you miss, your lower leg can extend automatically.
As Moreno moved to avoid the knee, he set himself up to get hit low. It is the champ’s job to control his limbs, yes, but this was clearly an accident but Herzog took a point anyway! I have seen 2 hard shots to the cup and no point taken, maybe even three.
To take a point in a championship fight for one accidental low blow shows that the level of refereeing in the UFC can at times be as bad as the level of judging. That is a strong statement, I know, but I don’t care.
I saw Herzog replied to a tweet that he massively screwed up by saying “Oh, how much did you lose?” regarding betting. What a child! Admit when you clearly made a mistake that clearly made the difference in a championship fight.
I didn’t bet it and most of you probably didn’t throw your life savings on a 5 to 1 method of victory bet for a decision in a 5 round fight but there is a principle involved. It was sad to see that an MMA referee, the model of integrity, can’t admit when he was wrong.
Enough about that guy. We still had a very profitable night on the betting front. We had a lot of picks from the Monday preview to the last minute picks on Friday.
Let’s review our night of betting at UFC 256 and also preview the massive fight card we have scheduled for this weekend which will be the final fights of 2020. What a year, guys, my gosh.
BetOnline.AG has most of the betting odds we will reference today. If we can find more valuable lines on other online sportsbooks, we will include those as well.
UFC 256 Betting Recap
We didn’t really have the best start to the week. I thought Renato Moicano and Jacare Souza would be live underdogs in their matchups. Whew, I was wrong wrong. It didn’t take long at all for both men to get put out.
Each had a first round exit. One was just slightly more shocking than the other, though.
Fiziev catching Moicano over the top with a hard shot was definitely a possibility heading into Saturday night and the Kyrgyzstani showed that he is a problem for the Lightweight division. I thought Moicano could probably take him down.
The Brazilian shot in once. It was from far out and he didn’t set it up at all. Therefore, it failed and shortly after that, Moicano was looking up at the lights.
What Kevin Holland was able to do to Jacare Souza, though…
That was tremendous!
I have always been a fan of cracking guys from my closed guard when I have their posture controlled. You can do a lot of damage from there and your opponent will likely give you something they normally wouldn’t because they’re getting hit.
From open guard, though, against one of the greatest top control BJJ submission grapplers of all time?! I don’t think anyone saw that coming. Maybe Kevin Holland himself but that’s about it.
As for the pick, I thought his takedown defense was porous against weaker opponents and that Souza would get him down. Well, that happened twice in 90 seconds but the Brazilian was beat up badly the entire time.
Cheers to Kevin Holland! We did catch him to win by TKO, though. I picked Jacare at (+120) but felt that Holland had a good chance to TKO the aging legend so we added Kev by TKO for (+450) and booya!
Betting 100 bucks on each fight, we are up 250 right now.
We took Charles Oliveira to beat Tony Ferguson for a pretty (+144). I was proud not to come off of this bet because I felt like Tony Ferguson was overrated when he fought Justin Gaethje and felt the same way about “Do Bronx” Oliveira.
The Brazilian is ultra technical and Tony is not. Yes, Charles has shown quit and Tony tends to bring that out in people but over just three rounds, I had to give the advantage to the guy at the top of his game right now.
We also hit on that over 2.5 in the title fight and, of course, Herzog screwed us and many others out of some money. All of those bets take us up to 384.00 in profit so far.
In a pretty shameful moment, we took Pineda and Swanson to go over 2.5 rounds. Wow, Daniel Pineda…I don’t think you ran one mile, bicycled one hill, or went to one strength and conditioning workout.
This son of a biscuit eater was not just tired but GASSED completely after about 60 freaking seconds. Don’t tell me it was his nerves either. The guy has over 40 professional fights. He has had plenty of time to see what works and what doesn’t and dial in the efficiency from there.
But no, this lazy, ugh. Just go have a drink with Jason Herzog, and you guys talk about all the girls you could have dated if you weren’t 5’3. Okay, that was mean. I apologize to all my shorter male readers, but those two really stunk up what was otherwise the perfect fight card.
So, down another bill, which brings us to 284.00 profit betting 100.00 per fight. That’s okay, though. Gavin Tucker to the rescue! The 12-1 Canadian powerhouse was the far shorter man against Billy Quarantillo, but he made use of every pound, though, coming in jacked but not tan.
Tucker was too much for Billy, and most importantly, Gavin never slowed down and let Billy Q do his thing of taking over from the more skillful fighter after they had gassed.
That was (+145)! I thought that was probably the best bet on the fight card. At this point, we are up 429.00. We took Cyril Gane to get the win by way of finish, and I heard a lot of colleagues say the Cyril by decision line was the way to go.
Over the first few minutes of the fight, I was seeing their point, but against an aging fighter whose chin is gone, it only took one from Gane to completely stun the Brazilian, much like we saw from the first punch that Holland caught Jacare with on the mat.
It was stun, then rock, then KO. That may be the very last time we see both Jacare Souza and Junior Dos Santos fighting inside the Octagon.
That was good for (-140) so add 71 bucks to our profit for an even 500.00.
Well, Mackenzie Dern had a tough go with Virna Jandiroba. The latter even broke Dern’s nose with a knee up the middle. The fight was back and forth, but I thought their BJJ would match up on the mat, and then we would see mostly a striking battle between two grapplers, which usually ends in a decision.
This is exactly what happened, and Dern won a unanimous decision…for a (+300) payout!
That puts us up at 800.00 in profit. It could have been 1450.00 if Herzog had not taken a point from Figueredo, but the main event was still an awesome fight, and we didn’t lose any money on it.
We had 10 total bets on the card and only went 6-4. We don’t bet on lame odds, though, so our return on investment was still up at 80%. That is pretty good for putting up 10 units. Do that every week and you’re rich!
That’s the plan, though. We have had an outstanding December, and I really want to keep it moving this weekend at the final event of the year.
We have some opportunities, though. That’s for sure. There are currently 15 fights on the docket for Saturday. Will we lose some to COVID? Probably but I foresee at least 12, and that is a win any week in 2020.
Let’s get to our betting preview for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card in Las Vegas.
UFC Fight Night Las Vegas Betting Preview
Pannie Kianzad (+135) vs Sijara Eubanks (-155)
Pannie continues to get shafted by the bookmakers. I just don’t get it. I know Sijara is a tough out and has looked good lately, but Pannie has hands and is not a small girl for the 135-pound weight class.
Julia Avila kinda bullied her in her UFC debut. The books opened her up for that fight near even and the bettors corrected the line and by fight time, Julia was a (-227) favorite. Avila is a bully and that’s exactly what she did.
In her next fight, though, she opened as the betting underdog to Jessica Rose Clark. I trained with Jessy Jess for years and I think she is one of the funniest people I’ve ever met as well as being a superb martial artist.
Jess is undersized, though, for the UFC’s Bantamweight Division due to her muscular thighs and glutes. You see this a lot. Big legs but a smaller frame. I would choose to have the larger frame myself.
Pannie looked great in that fight and showed her superior boxing skill and the forward pressure kept Jess from throwing a lot of kicks. Then Pannie gets matched up with Bethe Correia…
Bethe gets laughed at a lot because Ronda knocked her out. That is pretty sad being KO’ed by Rousey but the Brazilian has been a tough out for some of the division’s best ever since. That fight opened at even odds and again, we jumped all over it.
Could it be 3 in a row for us with Kianzad? I think so. She is being undervalued once again here.
Sarge Eubanks is a fighter I have love for as well. She is from PG County, MD which is essentially SE Washington DC and a scary place.
I was stationed at Andrews Air Force base right there in PG County and have even trained in the same BJJ family tree many times. She is 35 years old, though, and Pannie is 29.
I will shut up. I have Kianzad here as the (+135) favorite. She opened at (+150). I think this one will make its way down to even odds by fight time so jump on Pannie now!
Gillian Robertson (-110) vs Talia Santos (-110)
Sticking with the ladies and another woman we have a good history with and that’s Gillian Robertson. We are currently 3-1 with The Savage but she will have a very tough test against Brazilian striker, Talia Santos.
I wouldn’t go as hard with my bet size here as I would with Pannie Kianzad because we can only take the handicap so far until we get into the opinion zone.
What is that?
Well, we know that Gil is a takedown machine with a superior top game to most of her opponents she has faced thus far. If she gets the takedown, she generally wins. Talia is 15-1 and in her only defeat, she was taken down.
That’s what this one comes down to. It is striker vs grappler all the way and a bit of a clash of titans. This is a big fight for the UFC Women’s Flyweight Division. Robertson is currently ranked 12th and Talia will be looking to put a number next to her name for the first time in her 15-1 fight career.
The opinion odds are just that. This is the major reason why the fight is a pick’em still. There is only so much information available so it is up to us to break down the fight tape even more.
If I’m getting even odds in a small Octagon, I will take the grappler over the striker almost every time.
Marlon Moraes (-150) vs Rob Font (+130)
Hey, Marlon is a bad man and I am doing my best not to make this pick still upset at him for laying an egg opposite Cory Sandhagen just over 8 weeks ago.
For some odd reason, I thought Moraes had the sauce to defeat Sandhagen but the reach and the footwork of the Colorado native was just too much. Oh, and the spinning wheel kick that knocked out the Brazilian was pretty cool as well.
Moraes has kinda been exposed and he may not be the same guy ever since Henry Cejudo weathered a dark early storm to come back and completely obliterate the former champ for the belt.
I thought Jose Aldo did enough to beat him in the fight before that but Moraes was awarded the decision anyway.
Here’s the thing, guys.
Okay, that wasn’t quite the thing I was getting to but here goes. Moraes was knocked out on October 10th. When he fights Rob Font this Saturday, it will only have been 75 days since his concussion.
I think there should be a 100 day minimum but everyone is trying to squeeze in a fight before the end of the year. I get it. Money is pretty cool sometimes and it is Christmas, so…
Font is a pretty technical boxer and won’t have as much as Sandhagen did but will hold a 3-inch reach advantage over the stout Brazilian striker.
Give me the “dahg hih” from Bahston!
Jimmy Flick (-150) vs Cody Durden (+130)
This fight was supposed to happen a couple of weeks ago but they pushed ‘er back until this weekend. My opinion hasn’t really changed, though. I keep seeing a lot of love for Durden.
I know he took Chris Gutierrez to a draw and that is impressive but he had the man’s back for 5 minutes and couldn’t do anything but hang on and then in the second two rounds, Cody got worked.
People are saying oh, he has pro boxing matches and kickboxing also. Go back and watch. He was fighting clowns and pro boxing can be more of a joke than pro MMA at times. You see some terrible pugilists just out there for a paycheck.
I think Flick has been there and done that already and Cody isn’t a strong enough prospect to turn him away here. Just because you have a USA Wrestling tattoo doesn’t mean you’re an Olympian.
Flick is the better grappler by far. He just needs to get the fight to the mat and it will be a wrap, especially if Jimmy is on top.
There is your betting recap of the week. I have to be completely honest with you. I only bet on the over 2.5 in the main event and on Gavin Tucker. I just didn’t feel as confident as I did the week prior.
I believe I mentioned that a few times, though, and encouraged you guys to bet small. Well, I hope you didn’t listen to everything I said because it was a killer night.
Wagered 1000 bucks or 10 units and profited 800 or 8 units!
I am happy with that even though I had a bad feeling about Moicano and Souza going into it.
I don’t think anyone saw Jacare getting knocked out by a guy sitting on his butt but it happened, though. We had a solid night overall and the 3/4 performance on method of victory props had me thrilled.
It could have been another (+550) if it wasn’t for Jason Herzog killing us with his power trip, the night could have been remembered as somewhat epic but thanks anyway, bro.
I really like the picks we have today, though, for this weekend.
Pannie is my #1 play so far followed by Jimmy Flick, Rob Font, and Gillian Robertson.
PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!
Get your bets in now, team, because I think the odds will be on the move in the opposite direction as the week progresses and enjoy the final UFC fights of the year.