In a normal baseball season, you are never going to be making future’s bets in September. By this time of the year in a 162-game season, with 150+ games already played, everything is usually pretty much decided. There might be one or two division races that are still tight or a close finish to one of the league MVP or Rookie of the Year races, but for the most part, there isn’t a lot of value left on future’s in September.
But this year, Major League baseball has made so many changes to the game, with reduced and compressed schedules, roster and rules changes, and an expanded playoff, that even this late in the season, we can still find value all over the board for future’s bets. And the best part about it is you aren’t going to have to lock up your money for six months to take advantage of that value, like you would if you were making a standard MLB future’s play in March or April.
Right now, you can make a future’s bet, and snatch up huge value, and get paid in two week’s time. In this article, I am going to give you five American League futures bets that you need to make now! Let’s get started!
Luis Robert To Win Rookie Of The Year (-110)
Coming into the season, Luis Robert was one of the most hyped-up rookies in recent memory. The kid was on the cover of just about every magazine out there and signed a 6-year $50 million contract before ever taking a Major League at-bat. But even with expectations that were close to impossible to meet, Luis Robert is still finding a way to wow us nearly every day.
Robert is leading all AL rookies with a 2.1 wins above replacement, a number that ranks him higher than perennial all-stars like Anthony Rendon, Nelson Cruz, and Ronald Acuna Jr. He is fifth in the American League in stolen bases (8), twentieth in home runs (11), and has an on-base percentage of .317, while slugging .503. All while playing stellar defense in the outfield for a Chicago White Sox team with the best record in the AL.
The AL Rookie of the Year Award is a two-horse race at this point, between Robert and Mariners budding superstar Kyle Lewis. Lewis was actually my pick to win this award just a couple of weeks ago as he led the AL in batting average at a smoking hot .378 in August. But Lewis hit a bit of a wall late in the season and is now hitting just .295. Lewis has shown that he can make plays in the outfield that we haven’t seen in Seattle since a young Ken Griffey Jr, and comparisons to The Kid are a little premature, but impossible to avoid.
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 15, 2020
When you stack the stats side by side, it is a tight race between Robert and Lewis. Lewis has a higher batting average, on-base percentage, and more hits. But Robert has more homers, RBI, stolen bases, and his WAR is 2.1 to Lewis’ 1.8. Based on just the cold hard numbers, this is a very tight race.
But similar to the MVP Award, the Rookie of the Year Award tends to be a popularity contest, where the best rookie on the best team, in the biggest market, tends to win more often than maybe they should. This is where Luis Robert has a major advantage over Kyle Lewis. The Mariners are putting together a great second half, and if they find a way to sneak into the playoffs, Lewis would see his ROY stock skyrocket.
Most Outs Above Average among outfielders this season:
Luis Robert: 6
Jackie Bradley Jr.: 5
Kevin Kiermaier: 4
Trent Grisham: 4
Cody Bellinger: 4 pic.twitter.com/mTEUdWmpMm
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) September 9, 2020
But when you look at the Chicago White Sox, they are the talk of the American League, as they are going to win the very competitive AL Central Division, and right now, they are the top seed in the AL playoffs. Robert fits the mold of the best rookie on the best team and has the national spotlight on him. Fire hard on Robert to take home ROY in the AL and pick up the free cash.
Chicago White Sox To Win AL Pennant (+450)
Speaking of those Chicago White Sox, we can get the AL’s best team, at a very attractive +450 to take home the league pennant right now. The American League is certainly competitive, and you can’t count out the Yankees, Rays, Twins, and A’s as all of those teams are going to be hard to beat in the playoffs, but just based on the price, this is a high-value play.
Playoff baseball is all about momentum. We saw that last year when the Washington Nationals went from a mediocre team in the regular season to one that got hot late and took home the first World Series title in franchise history. And right now, no team is hotter than the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have won ten out of their last eleven games and are surging to the finish line of the regular season.
𝗠𝗔𝗚𝗜𝗖 𝗡𝗨𝗠𝗕𝗘𝗥: 2️⃣ pic.twitter.com/8SOxk0MroU
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) September 16, 2020
Chicago has taken their last two games over the Minnesota Twins, and those wins are going to all but lock up the AL Central Division title. The two teams that they are competing with, outside of Minnesota, for the top seed in the AL, the Oakland A’s and Tampa Bay Rays, are both 5-5 in their last ten games. That tells me that Chicago is going to finish as the top seed in the league.
To be able to back the top-seeded team in the league, at +450 to win the league pennant, is just too good of a spot to pass up on. Are the White Sox locks to win the AL pennant? Absolutely not. But at this price, they are worth a play for sure.
New York Yankees To Win The World Series (+750)
Two weeks ago, I would have told you that the New York Yankees were done for the year. They were in free fall down the standings, and not only were they not going to win their division, they were at risk of missing the playoffs altogether. But New York’s situation wasn’t that they were underperforming; it was that they had their entire team on the IL.
The Yankees came into 2020 as the prohibitive favorites in the league but suffered injuries to several key players. Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, DJ LeMahieu, James Paxton, Aaron Judge, and Gary Sanchez have all spent time on the injured list this year. Most teams don’t have that much talent on their entire roster, let alone sitting on the sidelines.
Prior to tonight’s game, the Yankees reinstated RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (#43), OF Giancarlo Stanton (#27) and INF Gio Urshela (#29) from the 10-day injured list.
Additionally, the Yankees optioned INF Mike Ford and INF/OF Miguel Andújar to the Alternate Site.
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 15, 2020
The Yankees had a stretch of games where basically all of these guys were out at the same time, and the results were ugly. New York lost fifteen out of twenty-five games in late August and early September and briefly dropped out of the playoff picture, after having the best record in the AL early in the season. But the Yankees are finally starting to get healthy now, and they are winning games again.
LeMahieu, Torres, Stanton, and Urshela have all rejoined the team in the last week, and New York has won six straight games. The Yankees won’t be able to catch the Tampa Bay Rays for first place in the AL East Division by the end of the season, but they are locks to make the playoffs, and nobody is going to want to face this Yankees team in the postseason if they are healthy.
A twenty for your thoughts? pic.twitter.com/LrpAltUoe8
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 16, 2020
Aaron Judge is close to returning and will be the final piece of getting the Yankees lineup back to full strength. Yesterday, when New York welcomed back both Stanton and Urshela, they scored a whopping twenty runs against the Toronto Blue Jays. If that is a sign of what is to come from this Yankees lineup, they are an absolute steal at +750 to win the World Series.
The Yankees were always the favorites in the AL if they managed to stay healthy, and right now, it looks like they just might hit the postseason with all of their best players on the field, and that has to have the rest of the league shaking in their boots. This one is a bit of a gamble, as New York has spent the last two years constantly fighting injuries, but if they can buck that trend and stay healthy, they are the team to beat, and at +750, they are well worth a play.
Jose Abreu To Win MVP Award (+550)
Are you sensing a trend here? The Chicago White Sox dominate my list of action, as the team is red-hot right now, and they could easily sweep many of these various awards and accolades. Jose Abreu is having a remarkable season and leads the American League in wins above replacement. The only thing that could hurt Abreu, is all of the success that the other guys on this White Sox team are having.
Abreu leads the AL in WAR at 2.4, but teammates Tim Anderson (2.3 WAR) and Luis Robert (2.1 WAR) round out the top three. Maybe the fact that this entire team has had so much success this year has distracted people from just how good Abreu has been this year.
Abreu leads the AL in RBI (48) and hits (65), is fourth in home runs (15), and fifth in slugging (.621). On paper, he seems to be clearly the guy to beat for the AL MVP. But, despite the stellar stats, Abreu is not the current betting favorite. Both Twins slugger Nelson Cruz (+125) and Indians starter Shane Bieber (+200) are currently priced higher than Abreu, which opens up a lot of value on backing him.
He would be in good company.
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) September 15, 2020
Nelson Cruz is certainly having a great season as well, and he is the current betting favorite. But when you look at his stats alongside Abreu’s, he just doesn’t match up. Abreu has more hits, RBI, runs, and doubles than Cruz. He also has a higher batting average and WAR. No disrespect to Nelson Cruz, but right now, Jose Abreu has just been better, and when you throw in the fact that Cruz doesn’t play defense, I am shocked that he is priced higher.
Shane Bieber is in the same boat as Cruz, as he is having a very strong season, but he shouldn’t be priced above Jose Abreu. Bieber is having one of the best seasons we have ever seen from a starting pitcher. But starting pitchers just don’t win the MVP Award very often. The last time a pitcher has won the MVP Award in the AL was Justin Verlander back in 2011. Before Verlander’s win, an AL pitcher hadn’t won the award since Dennis Eckersley way back in 1992.
The voters tend to give the best pitcher the Cy Young Award, not the MVP Award, unless they are very special, and there isn’t a strong everyday player candidate. Bieber picked up his first loss of the season in his last start, and in my opinion, the only way he was winning the MVP Award was is if he ran the table, and now that he isn’t going to be able to do that, I see him falling out of the race. Abreu is the prohibitive favorite in my book, and you need to hammer this number.
Seattle Mariners To Make The Playoffs (+1300)
Nobody expected the Seattle Mariners to be in playoff contention at this point of the season. And to be honest, if it weren’t for the Houston Astros, who had an epic mid-season collapse, they wouldn’t even be in the postseason conversation. But right now, the Seattle Mariners are just two games behind Houston for second place in the American League West, and the final AL West playoff spot, with a dozen games left to play on the schedule.
Seattle is 15-8 in the last month, as they have been playing quality baseball. They have taken advantage of the struggling Astros that have lost ten out of their last fifteen games. These two teams will match up in Seattle in the regular season’s final week of play, and that final playoff spot will very likely be on the line.
The Astros finish to the year lays out as much softer than Seattle’s, and Houston has owned the Mariners in head to head games the last several years. But if this race comes down to which team can win that three-game series in Seattle next week, and it very likely will, being able to back the Mariners shows outrageous value at +1300.
How is your squad looking? pic.twitter.com/dtQiFba4Yd
— MLB (@MLB) September 16, 2020
Houston is struggling, and the Mariners are gelling and playing good baseball. Despite being awful on the road, the M’s are a winning team at home this season, and Houston’s eighteen road losses on the year, are the second-most in all of baseball, more than every team with the exception of the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team with the worst record in Major League Baseball.
So, you’re telling me I can get a team that plays great at home, against a team that can’t win on the road, and if the home team sweeps the series, they make the playoffs? And I can get double-digit odds to do it? Yeah, that’s a play you are going to want to make every time.
The Mariners have the longest playoff drought in the game, as they haven’t played in the postseason since 2001, and if the Mariners can keep up their hot play, they could back door into the playoffs and turn into one of the best feel-good stories of the year.
With just over two weeks left in the regular season, you need to get your action in now if you don’t want to get shut out! These numbers are changing on a daily basis as the season winds to a close, and you need to get your bets in right away to make sure you get the highest value possible. Thanks for reading and make sure that you stay tuned to The Sports Geek all season long, where we bring you free daily MLB betting picks!